Poland – like many other countries – does not have a system of fixed dates for parliamentary elections, but it should happen sometime before the end of November this year. Experts believe it will be in mid-October.
Conflict and increased power
It has been turbulent years in Poland since the conservative Law and Justice party took over in 2015. The economy continues to grow at breakneck speed – Poland has a higher GDP per person than Portugal and the country is closing in on Spain.
But perhaps even more important: after Russia attacked Ukraine, Poland became an invaluable country on the front line of NATO and the EU. Weapons, which are to enter Ukraine, are transported through Poland. Joe Biden has visited Warsaw to show his support twice in the past 16 months. Poland is also becoming a military power, with huge purchases of military equipment, such as tanks and robotic artillery systems.
At the same time, the Conservative government has been in permanent conflict with the EU. From LGBTQI rights to Poland’s legal reform, which the European Court of Justice says does not achieve the EU’s rule of law.
Conflicts, conflicts, conflicts.
The heart of Warsaw
In the Polish capital, I meet 16-year-old Michalina. She is a member of the opposition party Medborgarplattform led by the former prime minister and former EU Council President Donald Tusk. During the afternoons, she walks around the city and puts up stickers depicting red and white hearts, the informal logo of the opposition.
She is sure that Law and Justice will lose the election and that Poland will take a new course: cooperation with the EU, democratic reforms, legal abortions, LGBTQI rights. She has high hopes.
– For almost my entire life, I have always only heard bad things on the news. I want a change and for Poland to become a better place. So when I grow up I can have a good future, she says.
Gonna be a nail biter
Much is at stake. Not only the political direction of Poland, but indeed the direction of the entire eastern part of the EU. Poland is such a big player that a change could cause ripples in countries like the Czech Republic, Slovakia and Hungary.
When I meet the political scientist Andrzej Bobinski, who is the head of the Polityka Insight institute in Warsaw, he initially refuses to guess how the election will go. But after some light journalistic pressure, he relents.
– It is early in the election campaign. But if you were to force me to guess by putting a gun to my head, then I think the opposition will win, he says.
He believes that even though Law and Justice is better in the polls, the opposition quickly taps in, and seems to have more energy on its side.
It is going to be exciting. Just don’t watch the US primaries. Follow developments in Poland as well.