Joe Biden’s candidacy, worst decision in American history – L’Express

The real kickoff for the American presidential election will be on June 27. That day, Trump and Biden will face off in a debate on CNN in Atlanta, where the channel’s headquarters are located. For both candidates – but even more so for the tenant of the White House – the verbal joust will be a test of vivacity and endurance. On the Democratic side, we cross our fingers, we hold our breath and we pray… that Joe Biden succeeds in the oral exam. Because, until recently, he has shown signs of senility, notably disorientation.

At the ceremony of the 80th anniversary of the Landing, in Normandy, the 81-year-old head of state certainly gave a flawless speech. But, at other times, his fatigue was visible: unsteady gait, uncertain balance, fixed gaze, hesitant speech. “Between him and Emmanuel Macron, aged 46, or 38 years younger than the American, the contrast was striking, notes United States specialist Françoise Coste. Biden almost looked like a veteran of D-Day …”

The official trip to France – the longest of his mandate, five days, enough to give him time to rest – arrived after the publication of an in-depth article in Wall Street Journal highlighting “the signs of the president’s weaknesses”. According to the New York daily, which collected 45 testimonies from people in his orbit at the White House, “Joe Biden experiences ups and downs”: “Sometimes he speaks so quietly that he is inaudible. In meetings , he reads notes to express the obvious, takes long pauses between sentences, or even closes his eyes so long that some advisors wonder if he is asleep. The article caused a stir. And the question of the age of the oldest president in American history returned to the debate. Three months ago already, a judge who examined him as part of an investigation into secret documents improperly stored in his garage described him as an “old gentleman with a failing memory”…

The Kamala Harris problem

Today, 86% of Americans believe he is too old to serve a second term. “To this insurmountable problem is added another, equally insoluble: the presence of Vice-President Kamala Harris, explains pollster Whit Ayres. Almost no one in the United States, not even the Democrats, thinks that she is ready to assume the supreme office in case she has to replace the president.” These two elements – the age of the candidate, the rejection of Harris – explain the weakness of Biden, in difficulty in the polls despite a rather positive economic record.

In order to limit the damage, presidential advisers are reducing his public appearances. “He is the president who has given the fewest interviews and press conferences in modern history,” squeaks conservative analyst Heather Mac Donald in New York. “The more the general public sees him, the more difficult it is for the White House to say there is no problem.” Democratic political scientist Andrew J. Polsky adds: “No president should be in his seventies or eighties. It’s far too exhausting a job. To do it, you have to be in your fifties or sixties,” adds this biographer of President Dwight Eisenhower , elected at age 62 in 1952 and then victim of heart attacks.

Between now and the debate against Trump the wrestler, the physical preparation of the frail Biden will be decisive. “I would recommend that he rest for several days on the island of Nantucket, the Biden family’s vacation spot,” says historian Barbara A. Perry, a specialist in American presidencies. “I would also tell his advisors not to stuff his head with figures. And this, so that the mishap of Ronald Reagan does not happen to him during the first debate in 1984, catastrophic for the former actor, on the defensive on economic issues against Democrat Walter Mondale “Nancy Reagan had to intervene to rectify the situation,” says the historian. Before the second debate, she had instructed her husband’s advisers: ‘Let Ronnie be Ronnie!’ Likewise, the Biden team must not overprepare him. Jill Biden needs to say, ‘Let Joe be Joe!'”

“His stuttering may return…”

The closer the election gets, the more doctors in political science turn into doctors… in geriatrics. “We constantly talk about the health of the head of state,” recognizes Barbara A. Perry, author of numerous presidential biographies. “Joe Biden gives very good speeches, but they should not exceed twenty minutes. Afterwards, he may look tired, and his stutter may reappear.” She adds: “The attrition of power affects all presidents, but I have the impression that the massacres of October 7 and the Israel-Hamas war could have particularly affected him.” Added to the political pressure of daily life are his personal concerns – or rather those of his son Hunter, a former drug addict convicted on June 11 for illegal possession of a firearm. The length of his sentence will be set within a few weeks. He faces up to twenty-five years in prison, but, having never been convicted before, he should escape incarceration.

Can Biden throw in the towel again? Few commentators think so, but the scenario remains plausible. Faced with the obstinacy of the president, convinced that he is the only one capable of beating Trump, his wife Jill is in the best position to convince him to give up the fight. In this case, the choice of a replacement candidate would be made during the party convention in mid-August in Chicago, according to the rules of the past. Until 1968, primary elections played a secondary and only indicative role. It was the party delegates who, after three days of tough negotiations, then chose their champion during the Convention.

If so, there would be plenty to choose from among the string of Democratic governors ready to take the plunge, including Gavin Newsom (California). “He would be a very serious contender, even if right-wing voters hate him,” points out conservative Heather Mac Donald. The Democratic Party should also decide the fate of Kamala Harris, as unpopular as she is unavoidable. “It was she who in 2020 attracted the essential vote of African-American women towards Biden; her sidelining would be badly received by black women”, affirms the Americanist Françoise Coste, who concludes: “Out of Kamala Harris, no salvation!”

In the event of a major health problem…

Without going so far as to hope for a health problem, some would rejoice if, during the debate against Trump, Biden’s physical decline was obvious to the point that the question of his replacement could no longer be avoided. The scenario is even provided for by the 25th amendment to the Constitution. In the event of the head of state’s mental or physical incapacity, the 15 members of the “White House cabinet”, that is to say the government, can vote behind closed doors to terminate his functions.

There would then be four months left to form a new presidential ticket and carry out a blitzkrieg campaign that would have a good chance of destabilizing Trump. This would neutralize the risky choice of Joe Biden, so eager to run for a second term. A decision that the Wall Street Journal calls it “one of the worst ever taken by an American president in American history.”