In sporting language, this is called a “remontada”, or a highly unexpected reversal of the situation which allows a team to go up in score. This describes the change in atmosphere that occurred this summer in the United States, in the final stretch before the midterm legislative elections, or midterms, on November 8. In a few well-considered actions, the Biden administration has managed to garner a series of successes. And this at a time when the world was staring at Ukraine and Mar-a-Lago, the residence of Donald Trump, where the FBI carried out a spectacular raid on August 8.
Results ? For the first time since the emergency evacuation of Afghanistan by the US Army a year ago, the rating of the president goes up. Since mid-July, Joe Biden has gained 5 points in the polls, to reach 42.5%. Admittedly, this is ten points less than at the start of his mandate. But this “inversion of the curve” gives hope to the Democratic camp. Whereas, not long ago, a republican tidal wave was announced to the midterms, things are no longer so clear-cut. In two months, the Democrats could instead retain the majority in the Senate or the House of Representatives, or both. But how did old Joe Biden, who has repeatedly lost his balance in front of the cameras – falling down the stairs or riding a bicycle – this time land on his legs?
On August 7, the 79-year-old president skillfully maneuvers to have the Inflation Reduction Act, a less ambitious program ($700 billion “only”) than his Build Back Better plan, which had been blocked last spring by two recalcitrant senators from his camp: Joe Manchin and Kyrsten Sinema. Returning to better feelings, they agreed, after negotiations on the sly, to pass the so-called law of “reduction of inflation”. It will make it possible to lower the price of medicines for the elderly and to make investments for the climate (369 billion over ten years), by subsidizing, for example, the purchase of electric vehicles and renewable energies.
Joe Biden, the “old crocodile”
“I admit that I was a bit hastily taken in by the prevailing discourse that “Sleepy Joe” [“Joe l’endormi”, son surnom, NDLR] was too old to navigate the backwaters of Washington, admits political scientist Barbara A. Perry of the University of Virginia. But in fact, he has lost none of his skill, which is based on half a century of experience accumulated in Washington.” Behind the scenes, the “old crocodile” still knows which levers to activate.
Thus, Joe Biden passed the Chips Bill (on electronic chips, endowed with 200 billion dollars), which aims to repatriate the manufacture of semiconductors, today produced in Taiwan. Very popular among the military, the Burn Pits Act was also passed. Endowed with 280 billion dollars, this law will help the many veterans of Vietnam contaminated by Agent Orange and those of Iraq and Afghanistan, exposed to the toxic fumes of the “burn pits” – the dumps on the camps military. However, by will of obstruction, 39 republican senators out of 50 did not approve the text, however consensual. “Republicans have shot themselves in the foot, because their electorate has been waiting for this decision for ages,” said former Delaware Republican Party Chairman Tom Ross, who joined Joe Biden’s side after the Capitol stormed in January. 2021.
In a context where the American economy is doing rather well and where unemployment remains at a low level (3.5%), the continuous decline in fuel prices since July plays powerfully in favor of Biden. “In Charlotteville (Virginia) where I live, the price per gallon [3,78 litres] has fallen back to its pre-Covid price of $3.50,” says Barbara A. Perry. And the trend is the same everywhere, except in California, where it remains high. decisive factor in the United States, adds ex-Republican Tom Ross. Because each motorist who stops at a gas station establishes a correlation between the price at the pump and the administration that runs the country.
“If Russia loses, the victory will be credited to Biden”
On the international scene, the summer sequence is also successful. The elimination by a drone, on July 31 in Kabul, of the leader of Al-Qaeda Ayman al-Zawahiri pulled the rug out from under the feet of the Trumpists who intended to use the anniversary date of the fiasco of the American withdrawal from Afghanistan , on August 30, 2021, to viciously attack Biden. Ukraine? The US administration is handling the situation better than many were reporting. “If Russia loses, the victory will be credited to Biden”, predicts Jacob Heilbrunn, who heads the review The National Interest, from the eponymous (conservative) think-tank. As for Nancy Pelosi’s trip to Taiwan in August, it was necessary and useful, according to Heilbrunn: “Fortunately, the United States is not at the point where it gives up defending human rights. is the opposite of China, which had to swallow its pride.”
For Biden, the puzzle pieces fit together like magic. The dominant impression is that of an administration that has finally managed to put itself in working order. “Some compare the legislative successes of Joe Biden to those of Franklin D. Roosevelt, resumes Barbara A. Perry. For my part, I would rather compare the beginning of his presidency to that of John F. Kennedy, whose program ‘ at the start of his term had worked quite well despite the Bay of Pigs fiasco in Cuba in 1961.”
The Republicans, they accumulate setbacks. Initially seen as a posthumous victory for Donald Trump, the Supreme Court’s June 24 reversal of Roe v. Wade allowing abortion, backfired on conservatives. On August 2, 6 out of 10 voters in Kansas (this rural state had voted Trump 56% in 2020) rejected a referendum on the ban on abortion by 60%. A slap that may announce another in Kentucky (62% for Trump in 2020), which will have to decide on the same subject on November 8. “The Supreme Court’s decision has remobilized the Democratic electorate, but not only, observes Republican pollster Whit Ayres in Chicago. Part of the right does not agree with the Supreme Court either.” In Delaware, ex-Republican Tom Ross continues: “To hope to harm Biden, some conservatives are ready to do anything, including banning abortion in cases of rape, incest or birth defects. fetus.” In seven states, rapists are even justified in demanding visitation rights, or even custody of the child born of their crime!
“Trump is as heavy as an albatross”
By a kind of optical illusion, Donald Trump still seems to be in an upward phase. The fact is that within the party, most of the Republicans supported by the ex-president won their primary in view of the midterms of November. But an internal victory does not mean a triumph when all voters, including Democrats, are called to the polls. The proof: in Alaska, the hyper-trumpist Sarah Palin lost to a Democrat on August 31, during a partial legislative election that was a priori easily winnable. Another example: in the key state of Pennsylvania, the Democratic candidate for the senatorial next November leads in the polls by 14 points ahead of the famous Dr. Oz, a Trumpist doctor who became famous by hosting a television program.
In truth, most Republicans would prefer a candidate other than Donald Trump for the presidential election of 2024. “40% revere him, but many are undecided and 10% will never vote for him again”, specifies Whit Ayres. “Trump is as heavy as an albatross; he can’t take off again and he has become a burden for the Republicans,” says Jacob Heilbrunn, in Washington, who knows the American right closely. He, who has defended the Democratic president from the start, concludes: “I always thought that Biden was doing a good job internationally and in the United States. But that the press has been unfair to him from the start.” Could the tide be turning?