Can a president have a good track record and be unpopular? This is the equation that worries Joe Biden’s team one year before the US presidential election. On paper, many indicators are green. Inflation, which had reached 9% by mid-2022, fell to 3.2% in July (but without returning to its usual level, around 2%). The unemployment rate remains low, at 3.6%, thanks to the creation of at least 200,000 jobs per month since 2021. Even the number of homicides, after a worrying peak during the Covid-19 crisis , is down sharply.
During the first two years of his presidency, Joe Biden managed to pass four major investment laws to stimulate the economy. First, a recovery plan just after the end of the health crisis, then a vast program to rebuild roads, bridges and infrastructure. The Inflation Reduction Act supports American industry, in particular the production of solar panels and electric cars, while the Chips Act finances the semiconductor sector. “It is objectively a very good mandate, believes Jean-Eric Branaa, specialist in the United States. Joe Biden has put the country on the rails of the future, as he had announced.
Such results would be godsend for any re-election candidate. But Joe Biden’s popularity is not taking off. According to a recent surveyit receives 40% favorable opinions, just like donald trump. None of his predecessors since the 1950s was at such a low level after three years in office, with the exception of Jimmy Carter… who ended up badly beaten in 1980 by Ronald Reagan. Worse, only 23% of Americans think the country is moving in the right direction.
Failed communication
In recent months, the American president has traveled the United States to defend his balance sheet and his “Bidenomics”, the nickname of his economic policy. According to Jean-Eric Branaa, “Joe Biden’s problem is that almost no one is aware of or talks about all these results”. This proves the failure of its communication strategy. “The president made a mistake in wanting to be humble, in working quietly to oppose the Trump method, because today’s political world is very demanding in terms of communication,” he explains. -he. Added to this are laws that are certainly important, but not very attractive and whose results are not immediately visible, such as the one on infrastructure.
Above all, many Americans see no change in their daily lives and remain concerned about perceived high prices. “[Les démocrates] should stop worrying about the students who have to repay their loans, and worry about us, who are trying to make a living with these food and gas prices,” protested Dawn Grantham, an Arizona retiree and independent voter, interviewed by NBC News. “I depend on Social Security assistance and this inflation is killing me,” added her husband, Dee. In this decisive state for the presidential election, a gallon of gasoline (3.7 liters) costs 3.59 dollars, more than in the rest of the country, and Joe Biden is held responsible for it.
“Because of inflation, mortgage rates have also increased and it is almost impossible to buy a house,” adds Kathleen Dolan, professor of political science at the University of Wisconsin-Milwaukee. “These indicators are at the heart of media attention and they matter to Americans.” The economy and employment remain the main concern for 1 citizen in 5 of them, far ahead of crime and the environment.
Lack of enthusiasm
Joe Biden suffers from his advanced age. If re-elected in 2024, he will be 86 at the end of his term four years later. To play it down, he makes it a pledge of wisdom and a subject of joke. “I believe in the First Amendment to the Constitution, and not just because my good friend Jimmy Madison wrote it,” he launched last April, as if he had known this founding father of the United States. But a president struggling for words or falling on stage arouses little enthusiasm, including in the Democratic camp. It is even a source of concern on both sides of the political spectrum. More than 6 in 10 Americans think their president lacks the mental acuity and physical health needed for his job. according to a survey published in the washington post last may. Obviously, the opposition benefits from this. “The Republicans, Trump in the lead, have created a character with nicknames, like Sleepy Joe or Senile Joe. It’s a very successful smear campaign that convinced many Americans,” says Jean-Eric Branaa.
Finally, the score of 40% favorable opinions is indicative of the division of a society in which a president can find favor only in the eyes of his own sympathizers. “Political polarization has never been more critical,” says Kathleen Dolan. “Democrats think well of him, Republicans hate him and think he’s the Antichrist.” A statistical tool, American National Election Studies, illustrates this polarization well. He asks Democratic and Republican voters to give a mark out of 100 to the candidate of the other party. In 2000, Democrats gave George W. Bush an average of 44.8/100, and Republicans gave contender Al Gore a score of 40.8. Twenty years later, Democrats gave Donald Trump 9.6 and Republicans gave Joe Biden 20.2.
Of course, all is not lost for the tenant of the White House. The road to the presidential election is still long and full of unknowns, such as the winner of the Republican primary and the verdicts of Donald Trump’s trials. Joe Biden still has time to defend his record. But to convince, he will have to show that he alone can protect the fundamental rights threatened by the Republicans. “Abortion is a subject that motivates a lot of Democratic, independent and young voters”, recalls Kathleen Dolan. “Nearly every election where abortion was at the heart of the debate has been won by the Democrats.” Here it is, perhaps, the key to his re-election.