The main thing is to believe in it. As soon as the opportunity arises, Joe Biden’s entourage assures that the president is as fresh as a roach, recalls that he practices gymnastics every morning and that Donald Trump does not overly impress him. A top candidate, indeed. Last week, however, the 81-year-old head of state, renowned for his gaffes, got confused during a speech, confusing François Mitterrand – who died in 1996 – with Emmanuel Macron. At a meeting in Las Vegas (Nevada), he spoke of his first G7 Summit in 2021: “I told them: ‘America is back!’ So Mitterrand from Germany, uh, I mean from France, replied to me: ‘But for how long are you back?'” As Jeanne Moreau sang, Joe has a failing memory and no longer remembers Alright.
Two days later, “special prosecutor” Robert Hur, responsible for investigating the confidential documents taken by the ex-vice-president after the end of Obama’s term and stored in his garage from 2017, absolved Joe Biden. He attributes this offense to a simple mistake. Good news ? Even. In his report, the magistrate described the person concerned as “a well-meaning old gentleman, but with a failing memory”. For example, during an interview with the judge, Biden no longer remembers when he was vice president (it was from 2009 to 2017). He also does not remember “the date of the death of his son Beau”, “not even within a few years”, specifies the judge’s report (Beau Biden died of cancer in 2015). “His memory is significantly limited,” the report concludes. Furious, the same evening, Thursday February 8, the head of state called a press conference at the White House. Pugnacious, he explains, to the tune of “Everything is very well, madame la marquise”: “My memory is good.” And he protests: “How dare he raise this question? I don’t need anyone to remind me when my son died.” But two minutes later, during the same press conference, he did it again: the president spoke of the Egyptian head of state Abdel-Fattah al-Sissi as the “president of Mexico”. Oops…
Ten months before the presidential election on November 5, many are wondering if Biden is really the man for the job. A few days before this unfortunate sequence, the NBC channel published a poll. Only 37% of Americans believe that the president is “doing a good job,” we learn. But 60% think the opposite. Catastrophic figures, even worse than those at the end of the second term of George W. Bush, then extremely unpopular. Furthermore, 47% of voters say they plan to vote for Trump while 42% are preparing to choose Biden. A difference of 5 points, considerable. The trend is not new. Since November, polls have shown the president losing in seven “swing States” (key states), which will decide the outcome of the vote.
Biden’s two weaknesses
The disenchantment with Biden dates back to August 2021, during the withdrawal from Afghanistan. Considered a humiliating fiasco, this episode caused Biden’s popularity to plummet. Since then, he has never resurfaced. “Today, two main factors are fueling the president’s unpopularity: the migrant crisis at the Mexican border, where the number of illegal crossings is breaking records, and the inflation felt, explains the expert on the United States Raphaël Gallardo. Certainly, inflation has almost subsided but, regarding this phenomenon, the ‘memory effect’ generally lasts three years”, continues the economist of the Carmignac investment fund. In short, thirty-six months must pass before Americans begin to forget about inflation. However, there are only ten months left before the November 5 election.
The question is therefore: would a candidate other than Biden have performed better? “The president has two weaknesses that neither he nor anyone can do anything about,” replies political consultant Whit Ayres, in Washington. “The first is that the vast majority of Americans think he is too old for this job, which is the most difficult in the world. The second is that no one judges Kamala Harris capable of occupying the presidential office. She was singularly insufficient in the position of vice-president. Now on the “electoral ticket” alongside the octogenarian Biden, the probability that she will replace him during his mandate is considerable. Of course, the personality of No. 2 generally doesn’t factor into voters’ choice. But if the vice-candidate cannot win an election, he can lose it. This happened to Republican John McCain in 2008, after choosing Sarah Palin, whose personality acted as a foil.
Get rid of Kamala Harris? “It is very late for such a maneuver,” notes United States historian Françoise Coste. “Moreover, it would deprive Biden of part of the support of African-Americans, who would not appreciate such a signal.” In New York, Heather Mac Donald, an analyst from the conservative think tank Manhattan Institute, tackles: “This shows that choosing a vice-president on the basis of her gender and skin color is madness. Kamala Harris is not “not up to par,” adds this “anti-woke” intellectual. Yet the Democratic Party remains prisoner of the absurd idea that getting rid of her because of her incompetence would amount to racism.”
Without Biden, who to face Trump?
But in fact, why did Biden himself back down? He had in fact suggested that he would be satisfied with a single mandate. The answer is simple: in 2020, he thought that, once defeated, Trump would disappear from circulation. This was to underestimate and ignore the revanchism of the person concerned. However, if Biden believes he is best placed to beat the billionaire again, it is not necessarily out of vanity. In fact, he believes no other Democratic candidate has what it takes to take on Trump. California Governor Gavin Newsom or Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer are in fact more to the left and less experienced than him; however, according to the editor-in-chief of The National Interest Jacob Heilbrunn, “Trump would make short work of it”. “In reality, Joe Biden’s inner circle is in high spirits, he assures. Biden’s entourage is confident because the Democrats beat Trump in 2018 [élections de mi-mandat]2020 [présidentielle] and 2022 [mi-mandat]. Certainly, Biden is unpopular… but so is Trump!, insists Heilbrunn. Beyond its base of fans, the latter is not unifying.” However, as Richard Nixon once said, “having an electoral base is essential, but that is not enough: we must keep the conservatives but also expanding to moderates and independents is arithmetic.”
Another handicap for Trump: the candidacy of Nikki Haley deprives him of an immediate triumph in the primaries and forces him to continue his campaign by attacking his Republican opponent. “In doing so, he demonstrates his misogyny every day, which is not to please the female electorate,” continues Heilbrunn. Furthermore, the judicial calendar may have surprises in store for Trump. Finally, another sign of hope for the Biden team: Trump is not taking advantage of the cascading international crises that are imposing themselves on the Democratic administration. “So far, it is doing quite well,” concludes the boss of The National Interest. The explosion in the Middle East did not happen, Israel did not invade Lebanon, Iran did not activate Hezbollah, the United States did not overreact and a ceasefire will end by what happens in Gaza.” Finally, Biden calculates, if Congressional Republicans persist in blocking aid to Ukraine, he will present them as allies of the Russia-China axis.
“Ultimately, the question is: who is the most unpopular?” argues Americanologist Vincent Michelot. “The November 5 vote will not be an election of support, but of rejection. However, the more the threat of a return of Trump becomes clearer, the more the voters who hate him will mobilize. Things will be decided in the last line right, perhaps the last fortnight”, calculates this professor at Sciences Po Lyon. The 2024 presidential election looks more and more like lying poker.
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