Joe Biden will ultimately not be running for re-election in November. The 81-year-old Democratic president has caved in to pressure from his own camp, worried about his chances of victory against Donald Trump. An era of great uncertainty is now opening for a US presidential campaign that has already made history.
Here are some things to expect in the days and weeks ahead.
How ?
Even if there is consensus on who will succeed him, the process of formally replacing Joe Biden is likely to be a bit technical. The president was designated as the Democratic presidential nominee in a series of primaries held from January to June. He was supposed to be inaugurated at the party’s convention in Chicago in mid-August. But with the withdrawal, the party’s 3,900 delegates with a wide range of backgrounds are now free to choose their candidate.
In a memo written before Biden’s withdrawal, Brookings scholar Elaine Kamarck imagined that such an eventuality would result in “a kind of no-holds-barred convention,” with each side trying to push for its nominee. A roughly comparable scenario played out for Democrats on March 31, 1968, when President Lyndon B. Johnson publicly announced that he would not seek a second term, in the midst of the Vietnam War.
Who ?
Joe Biden has since announcing his withdrawal on Sunday said he supports his vice-president Kamala Harris. But no rule states that the running mate automatically replaces the incumbent candidate. In the wake of Joe Biden’s disastrous debate, she was sent to put out the fire. The fifty-year-old then conceded that Joe Biden had been “slow to start” but that he had “finished strong”. Without mentioning, at any time, the possibility of replacing him.
Kamala Harris, the first woman and first African-American to serve as vice president, could also face competition from other members of the party’s young guard. Like California Governor Gavin Newsom, who is on the rise among Democrats. However, he said that this type of “conversation” was “not good for our democracy.” The names of Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer and Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro are also being bandied about.
What campaign?
Once a candidate is chosen, a major problem will remain: running a three-month express campaign to make themselves known to the more than 250 million Americans of voting age, and above all, succeeding in convincing them. Kamala Harris starts here with a certain advantage, having already been known for nearly four years as Joe Biden’s vice president. The former senator from California, who has already received the support of several elected officials, has also been crisscrossing key states for months to campaign, particularly on abortion rights – a key theme of this year’s presidential election.
Another concern is that the funds already raised by Joe Biden’s campaign will not be easily transferable to any other candidate from a legal point of view. Kamala Harris’ name is already on Joe Biden’s campaign documents, but some experts argue that control of the millions of dollars already raised could be more easily attributed to her. This is an additional argument in the Californian’s pocket to obtain the party’s nomination. However, the postulate has already been rejected on the right, and legal action would be expected in the event of a transfer of funds.