The National People and Defense Conference in Sälen has been characterized by doom-laden tones. The overall message: Sweden and the Swedes should get ready for war.
But for those who are intimidated by the outcome, Joakim Paasikivi, lieutenant colonel at the Norwegian Defense Academy, has reassuring words.
– I always say that we should not be worried but that we should be vigilant and prepared. Being worried does not create better conditions for us to be prepared, he says.
– We will look at what our needs are. How should we defend ourselves together with our future allies? How can we have as good a joint defense as possible?
The Russian military is betting big
Sweden’s rearmament is widely discussed under People and defence, but the Swedish pace cannot be compared to Russia’s rearmament.
Around 40 percent of the Russian state budget is to be spent on defense this year, and thus the country’s defense spending increases by almost 70 percent.
The rearmament is mainly about two things, explains Joakim Paasikivi. Partly about expanding the Russian military in the long term, and partly about supplying the forces in Ukraine with ammunition, vehicles and robots – which is difficult to do at the same time.
– Russia is trying, but you probably have to invest more in the war in Ukraine. Therefore, it is important for Russia to now try to win or at least make this a low-conflict frozen conflict. Because then they can invest more in building up the forces, says Paasikivi.
“How long will it take for the west?”
The question is how long it will take before Russia has really rearmed up again. Estonian and Polish data state that it may take two to four years, think tanks in the West estimate that it may take five to ten years.
– It must be weighed against how long it takes for us in the West. And it hasn’t gone very quickly, says the lieutenant colonel.
Whether or not Russia will attack more countries will depend on whether Russia perceives the West as weak or strong.
– Russia has attacked its neighboring countries when they have perceived that the West is weak. During the Cold War, no NATO countries were actually attacked. From the Soviet Union, you don’t perceive the West as weak, says Paasikivi.
– We see that no one has attacked a NATO country in 75 years. Then we can hope that we manage to be credible, together. There will be a bit of a backlash now in the European armed forces.