It was in an interview with the Portuguese TV channel RTP that French President Emmanuel Macron opens for conversations about a European nuclear weapons strategy. It is a line that even the German election winner Friedrich Merz has been in, when he has proposed that Europe’s two nuclear powers – the United Kingdom and France – should “share with them”.
Military expert Joakim Paasikivi does not see that Europe’s relationship with Russia would be significantly affected by a common nuclear weapons strategy.
– We would hear even more of Russian nuclear threats, but there is no fundamental difference to the extent that their nuclear weapons have always been directed at Russia, and that the Russian nuclear weapons have always been directed to the West, he says.
“Would act as deterrent”
Although a European nuclear force is significantly less without the United States in the back, it could seem daunting against the Russian side anyway, he says.
– The big goal is, of course, Moscow and the state leadership, and the question then becomes whether a French and British nuclear response would come through the robot defense that the Russians have around Moscow, says Paasikivi and continues:
– In an American case, the answer is clearly yes, because it is such a large amount. At the same time, the Russians cannot expect nothing to arrive, so it is a significant threat to Moscow and the state leadership. It would serve as deterrent, but not as safe as the American.
“Less dependent on the United States”
While the British nuclear force today is partly linked to the American, the French is completely autonomous. In the past, the French have long been from sharing their nuclear arsenal with NATO, says Paasikivi.
– It is a difference that is in line with what is now relevant now, to increase European military autonomy compared to the past, when the United States was the security guarantee. What you do from Macron and Merz’s direction is to signal that you take it seriously, and that you will not wait for the Americans if needed, he says.
Macron’s statement is a clear sign that from a European point of view it is becoming increasingly difficult to trust the United States, says the military expert. A European nuclear monitoring would also affect the relationship with the country.
– An increased European autonomy automatically results in a less dependence on the United States, so from an American perspective it is a loss of control, he says.