The pension reform has provoked social mobilization on an unprecedented scale, in a protest movement that is set to continue. A surprising intensity for many observers, in a France often described as apathetic and resigned to having to work longer. The pollster Jérôme Fourquet deciphers, for L’Express, the springs of the mobilization. For the author of The French Archipelago (Le Seuil, 2019), there is no evidence that social anger benefits Marine Le Pen.
L’Express: Social mobilization was very strong and unexpected. What does it say about the attachment to retirement at 62?
Jerome Fourquet: This very powerful mobilization indicates that the retirement age remains extremely sensitive in France. This reform project, which aims to postpone the retirement age to 64, would thus erase what the French consider to be a major social advance acquired in 1981 on the occasion of the victory of François Mitterrand, a conquest inscribed in the memory depth of the country, especially in working-class circles.
| According to all French people | According to executives and CSP+ | According to employees and workers | |
|---|---|---|---|
| The 5th week of paid vacation | 52% | 43% | 58% |
| Retirement at 60 years | 51% | 31% | 53% |
| Abolition of the death sentence | 41% | 55% | 34% |
| The 39 hours | 31% | 19% | 32% |
Source: Ifop-Jean-Jaurès Foundation, 2021.
Since this historic decision, which dates back more than forty years, the idea has taken root that employees are entitled to a well-deserved period of rest, a time for themselves, which is that of retirement. In the collective imagination, retirement is associated with those seniors who go hiking, garden and take care of their grandchildren. It is estimated that this enchanted parenthesis is threatened.
Finally, certain slogans in the processions also echoed the dependency (“The retirement in a walker”). The Ehpad Orpea scandal made a big impression. Life expectancy has certainly increased, but not necessarily life in good health. Between 15 and 20% of the French population is “caregiver”: we now know that the time to live happily and in good health in retirement is not that important.
We have the impression of attending the gathering of the Parisian bobo youth and the working classes… You have theorized the French archipelago: do you think that the opposition to the reform can unite the French beyond their differences?
The demonstrations brought together both the usual large battalions of the civil service, part of the youth (even as the youngest anticipate that the rules will change several times between now and their retirement) and various profiles of people whose was the first manifestation. The extent of the mobilization demonstrates that the attachment to retirement at a reasonable age unites a large part of the French archipelago beyond the differences. It is almost a subject of society, almost of civilisation.
Does this contradict the findings of French people who would be resigned, apathetic, about a pension reform long perceived as inevitable?
A strong mobilization on a day of inter-union action is not contradictory with a form of general apathy. This simply means that the question of retirement is part of the red lines, for which part of the French are still ready to mobilize. In addition, we must be careful about the forecasts on the consequences of the movement: we have there only the first round of the mobilization.
Beyond retirement, it is the relationship to work that is questioned. A questioning that goes far beyond the question of physical arduousness… Does this mean that we have switched to a society that places leisure and free time at the heart of “real life”?
The relationship to work has evolved considerably in a generation. While in 1990, 60% of French people felt that work was “very important” in their lives, they are only 21% today, according to Ifop. There are mechanical reasons: the time spent at work has decreased, the 35 hours have gone by. We have also witnessed a strong development of the leisure society: tourism, short stays, video games, social networks… All these offers compete with working time and put its importance into perspective.
The world of work has also changed: the French feel less collectively there than before. Many professions have lost meaning, have become abstract or even dehumanized, due to the intensification of work, the demands of the customer-king who absolutely must be satisfied, the obsession with the short term, the rise in power of standards… Retirement at age 62 can be, in this context, an oasis to which one would have access after a long and painful crossing.
Does that mean that Emmanuel Macron is on the wrong track when he intends to put “work value” at the center of his action for his second term?
During his wishes to the French on December 31, Emmanuel Macron indeed pronounced 17 times the formula “It is through our work that…” Why is he doing this? The president may consider that in an archipelago society, you must first speak to your electoral base. His electorate – Macronist voters and those on the right whom he wants to seduce – remains mostly attached to this “work value”, very strong especially among retirees. Perhaps he also considers that his duty is to remind the French of the realities, without marrying the direction of the slope. The fact remains that this type of discourse has difficulty in resonating with the majority of the population…
The president defended a reform “democratically decided and validated”, with the idea that by voting for him, the French would have voted in favor of his pension reform presented during the campaign. Is it so clear?
Of course not. It is a semantic and rhetorical pirouette. As much as we can say that his electorate in the first round had validated this reform (Emmanuel Macron even spoke of a departure at the age of 65), we know that the voters on the left who turned to him in the second round do not adhere in any way most of its program. A large part simply blocked Marine Le Pen. All the surveys show an important constant in the opinion of the French: 60 to 70% of them have been opposed for years to an extension of working hours. If we go into detail, the postponement to 64 is not even unanimous among first-round voters of Emmanuel Macron: 43% are opposed to it.
Marine Le Pen and elected RNs are not taking part in the protests in the streets, yet her electorate is mostly opposed to pension reform. Can it benefit from it despite a posture of “half-withdrawal”?
Marine Le Pen wants to take on the role of chief opponent. She knows that her electorate is very opposed to this measure: 28% of French people are in favor of this reform, and support is only 18% among RN voters. However, she is aware that these periods of social mobilization are never conducive to her movement. If we look at social history since 1995, the National Front, which became the National Rally, has never capitalized on these sequences of protests. These are times during which the left/right divide is reactivated, and where RN executives know that they will be pushed around by the trade unions if they join a procession.
The Nupes would like to impose itself as the only electoral receptacle of this anger. But we saw Jean-Luc Mélenchon forced to anchor behind the unions. Can he disrupt the political face-to-face between Emmanuel Macron and Marine Le Pen?
We will have to see if the movement is long-lasting… Under the previous five-year term, we witnessed a dress rehearsal, with strong opposition to the first attempt at pension reform, very long strikes, demonstrations, and elected mélenchonistes at the forefront… In the end, it was Marine Le Pen who qualified in the second round. The social question is not the only theme on which voters position themselves. The next presidential election is in four years! What will remain politically of this movement in 2027?