MELENCHON. As the French go to the vote this Sunday, Jean-Luc Mélenchon and Nupes hold their breath. Will Nupes win the election, allowing its leader to claim the post of Prime Minister?
[Mis à jour le 12 juin 2022 à 13h44] For voters in the 577 French constituencies, it isst time this Sunday, June 12 to slip a ballot into the ballot box, barely two months after the second round of the presidential election. This time, we vote for the “third round”, that of the legislative elections: that is in any case how the leader of the left calls it. For Jean-Luc Mélenchon, this is a decisive moment. Whoever has given up competing for the deputation to better focus on his ambition to become Prime Minister will know at the end of the ballot of this first round if his formation has a chance of winning in the second… send to Matignon.
Why did Jean-Luc Mélenchon not stand in these legislative elections?
MP for the 4th constituency of Bouches-du-Rhône since 2017, Jean-Luc Mélenchon has decided not to stand for re-election for these legislative elections. Instead, he prefers to “hand over”, with the aim of shedding light on the new generations of rebels, to whom he had addressed in particular during his speech reacting to the results of the first round of the presidential election: “Do better!” he told them. And the baton passed to a central figure, his former campaign manager Manuel Bompard. “It is Bompard who will be a candidate. In the Insoumis, he is one of the most eminent figures of the new generation. I entrust him to you, elect him”, he declared in front of the Marseillais gathered for a meeting last month. Not representing himself was for Jean-Luc Mélenchon the way to send a signal about his real intentions: to break away from partisan ties, or at least from political strategies, to take the battle to the national level and impose himself as Prime Minister. from the country. This is in particular what explained to the Parisian the deputy of Seine-Saint-Denis and spokesperson for the LFI movement Alexis Corbière, who believed that his leader “optimized” to be “the most available in this national legislative campaign whose objective is victory”.
For Nupes, which presents itself as the third French political force since the 21.95% of votes collected by Jean-Luc Mélenchon during the first round of the presidential election, the stakes are high. The left-wing parties united in this popular union intend to obtain a parliamentary majority to influence the policies of the government, and, above all, to allow their leader, Jean-Luc Mélenchon, to become Prime Minister. This objective, he revealed it the day after the presidential election, in a solemn declaration made on the set of BFMTV. A surprising request, since the head of government is not elected but appointed by the President of the Republic, as indicated in Article 8 of the Constitution. However, the ambition of Jean-Luc Mélenchon is not impossible. Because, article 49 of the Constitution tells us, in a particular case, the Head of State may be forced to choose a Prime Minister from the opposing camp: if an opposition party wins a majority in the legislative elections.
Can Jean-Luc Mélenchon hope for this scenario? In any case, this is what he has been working for since between the two rounds of the last presidential election. The first step in this undertaking was to unite the left: mission accomplished for rebellious France, since in a few weeks Europe Ecology the Greens, the Communist Party and the Socialist Party signed an ambitious agreement with it. This New Popular Ecological and Social Union, by presenting unique candidates in each constituency, could well do a good job during these legislative elections. From there to win a majority in the Assembly? Not so obvious.
At the time of the vote this Sunday, it is still too early to say whether the Nupes could obtain an absolute majority. On the other hand, the possibility of obtaining a relative majority is emerging in a credible manner. In this case, the government would have the largest group in the National Assembly, without reaching the threshold of 289 deputies. Consequently, the executive could be hampered in the application of its program, because the number of opposition deputies would be greater than that of the majority. So, for each bill, an alliance would be required, which could lead to a situation of political paralysis. But at Nupes, the project gets stuck a little: despite the agreements between the main parties, it faces dissenting left candidates, especially among the Socialists, who could well capture a few percentages. The union therefore promises a fine operation for the left-wing parties, but obtaining a majority that would allow Jean-Luc Mélenchon to claim the post of Prime Minister does not look easy.
When voting next Sunday in Marseille, voters will not find the Jean-Luc Mélenchon ballot. And yet, his name will be associated with that of each candidate of the New Popular Economic and Social Union, and this in each of the 577 constituencies of the territory.
The head of rebellious France has chosen not to stand in these legislative elections. Outgoing MP for Marseille (4th constituency of Bouches-du-Rhône), he has chosen his successor: Manuel Bompard, the director of his presidential campaign, who is running in his place. In this constituency, Jean-Luc Mélenchon easily came out on top in the first round of the presidential election, winning more than 54% of the vote. The latter explained his choice not to run for the 2022 legislative elections: thus, he can participate in the Nupes campaign throughout the territory.
It’s time for the first round, then. But in reality, the major issue seems to be the results of the second round which takes place next Sunday, June 19. The outcome of this election, which will bring 577 deputies to the National Assembly, is uncertain for the time being. But if the scenario of an absolute majority won by Nupès were to be confirmed, the President of the Republic, who appoints the Prime Minister according to Article 8 of the Constitution, could see his choice of personality set aside if he does not not choose a candidacy approved by the parliamentary majority. Indeed, according to article 49 of this same Constitution, the political group which has a majority of deputies in the National Assembly has a decisive advantage in the choice of the Prime Minister thanks to the motion of censure or the refusal of the trust agreement. And to obtain the confidence of the Assembly, Emmanuel Macron will probably have to appoint the person chosen by the political alliance which holds the majority as Prime Minister. In any case, this is what all the presidents faced with cohabitation in the history of the Fifth Republic have done, by appointing the leader of the majority. “He will have no choice but to accept cohabitation because we will not vote for confidence”, insisted Jean-Luc Mélenchon, anxious to recall what could happen if Emmanuel Macron appoints another Prime Minister than him, or at least a personality who would not come from the Nupes.
The four main parties that make up the alliance have agreed on more than 650 common programmatic proposals. This program has as its base that of Jean-Luc Mélenchon and the Popular Union for the 2022 presidential election, entitled The common future. Among the common proposals of the Nupes, we find the increase of the Smic to 1500€, the reduction of the legal age of retirement to 60 years, the establishment of an “ecological planning”, or the creation of an “autonomy allowance” for young people. The program of the Nupes also indicates the points of divergence existing between the various formations, “which will be put to the wisdom of the Assembly”.
Jean-Luc Mélenchon took 3rd place in the 1st round of the 2022 presidential election. With 21.95% of the votes cast, he failed 1.2 points behind Marine Le Pen and the second round. He thus improved his result compared to the 1st round of 2017, where he came in 4th position behind François Fillon, with 19.58% of the vote. It was Jean-Luc Mélenchon’s 3rd presidential election: in 2012, he had already come 4th in the 1st round, but with only 11.1% of the vote, far behind François Hollande (28.63).