“A people who forget their past condemn themselves to relive it”, said Winston Churchill. By attacking Ukraine, Russia not only ended seventy-seven years of peace on our continent. She upset the balance and order of the world we knew.
However, in six weeks of relentless violence, the Russian authorities, which violated international laws and disregarded all humanitarian rules, made two major mistakes. The first is to have underestimated the resistance capacity of Ukraine, which has been preparing for the risk of invasion for a long time and knows its adversary perfectly, its brutal strength as well as its immense technical and tactical weaknesses.
Putin’s second mistake, as we saw very quickly, was to have underestimated the Europeans. While he thought he was capitalizing on our divisions, this invasion with the modus operandi of another century shows the rest of the world the resistance and unity of democracies in the face of authoritarianism. Never in the history of European construction have Europeans displayed such cohesion. The European Union has finally given itself a political existence.
Disrupted geopolitical context
But while we have to manage the crisis in real time and combine strategies to force Putin to give up this mad enterprise, we also have to build the post-war period.
And you have to imagine it in a totally disrupted global geopolitical context. Signs don’t lie. The obvious embarrassment of the Chinese leader, who traditionally hates instability and must deep down feel trapped in the imposed costume of accomplice or credulous. The discomfort of Turkey, which is trying to become a mediator so as not to cut the cord with NATO. The United States, which is testing its ability to remain major players while renouncing a military intervention which it knows is irreversible. Finally, Europe, which is becoming aware for the first time of its immense military vulnerability. It’s crazy to imagine that European nations could have built a project dedicated to peace from 1957 onwards without ever having to consider that they needed an army to defend it…
For too long, extremist parties have been built against the grain of history on an anti-European discourse displaying an unqualified sympathy for Putin and his autocratic attitude. The invasion of Ukraine comes usefully to discredit them by recalling that, in essence, a dictator lives closed in on himself, and that the absence of contradiction and counter-powers inevitably leads him to fall.
The construction of a defense Europe at stake
Because this war is occurring, due to the presidential election, at a crucial moment for our country, there is a historic opportunity to offer the French people a European leap forward, of which the Franco-German couple must remain the driving force. Quite rightly, the crucial question of our independence is put on the table: energy, raw materials, industrial and electronic components, agricultural products have become a strategic issue. Never again will we have to depend on Russian supplies to such an extent.
But, beyond that, the key subject is that of European defence. Complaining that we are not heard from a diplomatic point of view, we have forgotten a golden rule: there is no great diplomatic policy without a great defense policy. Having neglected it for almost seventy years, we have missed the chance to build a European identity that can be heard in the world.
It is therefore the construction of a true Europe of defense that is at stake. The countries bordering Russia have understood this perfectly, and we must hear their message rather than anathematize their domestic policy choices. The German Chancellor’s historic decision to program 100 billion euros for defense speaks volumes about awareness. France, which has always chosen to preserve its defense system, must be in the front line to stimulate a new dynamic, even if it means repositioning certain elements of its doctrine.
These are the key issues that must be discussed between French people and between Europeans so that tomorrow a dictator prisoner of his own follies can no longer cause a global crisis on our continent with complete impunity.