Former Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, who was shot in the chest while delivering a speech, was taken to hospital, where he died of his injuries. A 40-year-old man in possession of a firearm has been arrested. What consequences will this assassination have on the upcoming elections? Valérie Niquet, from the Foundation for Strategic Research, agreed to answer our questions.
RFI: You know Japan very well, where you partially live. Is Japan in shock this morning?
Valerie Niquet : Yes, indeed, it is something that is not common, well it is not common everywhere of course, but Japan lives in this idea of being an extremely safe country, although there are regularly attacks by unbalanced people that cause casualties, often with bladed weapons.
There, there is the shock, of course, because he is a former Prime Minister. Above all, he is the leader of one of the most important factions of the PLD, the ruling party. There are elections in a few days in Japan, and Abe had taken sometimes controversial positions on defense issues, nationalism, Japanese history, and at the moment it is very difficult to know if it is a madness, or if it was a more political attack on Abe himself.
But behind this smooth and polished appearance, frustrations and outbursts of blind violence are not uncommon. the #Japan is not the America of mass killings, and we have to wait to find out the motives of the killer….
— Valerie Niquet (@VNiquet) July 8, 2022
What is very rare, however, is that this type of action takes place with a firearm. Unlike the United States, it is very difficult to get a gun in Japan. It can be done, of course, but in very specific circles: in general, attacks take place with knives and even attacks against politicians are not completely unknown there. There have been several: one of the most symbolic and important was the assassination of the leader of the Japanese Socialist Party in the 1960s. It is something that exists and we have to wait to see what is the personality and what possibly the positions of whoever attacked Abe who was immediately grabbed, seemingly without resistance.
We are on the eve of important elections in Japan. What could be the consequences of this attack?
Again, it’s really going to depend on the personality and motivations of the person who attacked Abe. No doubt, we can imagine that this will further strengthen the vote in favor of the PLD party, currently in power with Prime Minister Fumio Kishida, by a kind of desire for research, security and stability, which is what symbolizes this PLD party in power.
Shinzo Abe is a record of political longevity, international fame, but also many disappointed hopes. In Japan, he had withdrawn for health reasons, but yet he was making a speech?
Yes, because he is participating in the electoral campaign as one of the most important members of the PLD. The PLD is a party that has been in power continuously since almost the 1950s, and it is within this PLD that political games are played between different factions, which alternate in the most important positions.
Shinzo Abe had taken the head of one of the most important factions of the PLD, therefore, he weighed a very important weight within this party. His personality is very well known, could also be very divisive for some, we know that there were also tensions between the current Prime Minister, who does not belong to the same faction, and Abe himself.
Abe was campaigning for the LDP candidates. In Japan, accustomed to very high security and sometimes somewhat blind to the threats that may weigh down, the means of protecting political figures when they are campaigning are very limited. They are on platforms in the middle of the street or on trucks and make speeches with certainly a police presence, but we can get very close to politicians, so that is perhaps also what risks being challenged, this idea that the country is so safe that ultimately, apart from a few madness attacks, there are few risks hanging over politicians.
For further : Japan. A declining model? by Valérie Niquet, published in 2020 by Tallandier editions.
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