If Trump wins, there will be uncertainty – and the same will happen if he loses. Trump’s camp still does not promise to respect the result of the presidential election, Riiheläinen reflects.
Janne “Rysky” Riiheläinen security policy observer
The next president of the United States will be elected in just over two weeks. Elections affect every corner of the world – and have for a long time.
Republicans Donald Trump’s the Russian president is watching the possible election with a particularly close eye Vladimir Putin. During his first term, Trump downright humiliated Putin. It also recently turned out that Putin and Trump have kept in touch quite closely as well Joe Biden during the presidency.
Russia’s central foreign policy goal has been to weaken support for Ukraine. Trump’s possible rise to power is probably the most feared in Kiev.
Putin is watching Trump’s possible victory with a particularly close eye.
Trump has threatened to cast a spell peace to Ukraine in a day. It means that Trump has an offer for Ukraine that cannot be refused. And Europe does not have the ability, and many countries do not want, to guarantee Ukraine’s military ability to defend its country alone.
However, for the Kremlin, peace is only acceptable if there is a victory in the war that is considered sufficient. For Finland, such a peace would mean a significant increase in the Russian threat. Russia could rebuild its military power, and at the same time, Trump would likely weaken NATO.
enacted by the United States Congress Scared by Trump’s previous term, the law states that the United States cannot leave NATO by a presidential decision alone. In practice, however, the ruler of the White House is able to resign from NATO so that the defense alliance’s deterrence weakens or even disappears.
In Finland, too, there are always preparations also to Trump’s victory. He was contacted throughout our NATO process, and contact with the Republicans has continued since then.
Trump’s election would also mean difficulties for the European Union.
Our sitting president was once an exchange student in Florida, Trump’s current home state, and later played golf on the university team there. If Trump is elected, it is by Alexander Stubb social skills use to the full.
Trump’s election would also mean difficulties for the European Union. Autocratic prime minister of Hungary Viktor Orban is one of the favorites of the people who passionately support Trump. When Orban toured the world on his “peace tour”, he met Trump personally at his home in Mar-a-Lago.
If Trump is now re-electedit gives Orban the political backing to continue his line. In this case, Hungary, together with Slovakia and perhaps Austria, will significantly challenge and hinder the life of the value-based European Union. The current majority of the parliament and the leadership of the commission are already at odds with Orban.
Trump considers himself strong as a leader, and he also admires such. Among other things, the crown prince of Saudi Arabia Mohammed bin Salmanthe dictator of China Xi JinpingPresident of Turkey Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban are his favorite leaders.
Trump’s election is certainly hoped for in Saudi Arabia. Trump’s son-in-law Jared Kushner served in the Trump administration, after which he received an investment of about two billion dollars to his company from Saudi Arabia. Last summer it was reported that Saudi Arabia is being built A skyscraper bearing Trump’s name.
The issue is not only the price of oil but also the relationship with Iran. Namely, Saudi Arabia and Iran are fiercely competing for the position of the leading power in the region.
Trump’s support would give Israel’s Netanyahu better opportunities to wage a ruthless war.
At the same time, Israel, which is at war prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu waiting and hoping for Trump to come to power fervently. Trump’s support would give him better opportunities to wage a ruthless war, including against Iran.
There is also the fact that the Prime Ministry is currently protecting Netanyahu from criminal proceedings. So he has the same cow in the ditch as Trump, to whom the presidency would give the opportunity to order the federal criminal cases against him to be dropped.
When the outcome of the US presidential election survive, the country will surely curl up on itself for a while. If Trump loses, he will to challenge result. Trump, or any of the leading Republicans, has not yet agreed to say directly that they also respect the lost election results. Also, none of them still admit Trump’s defeat in the previous election.
On the fifth of November, a great period of uncertainty begins, the duration of which is unknown. Regardless of who wins, the United States will be weak and fragmented for at least a while after the election. It means the emergence and escalation of various conflicts in the world.
But at worst The United States is sinking into an internal cycle of chaos that could crumble the entire state. This direction can come true, whoever wins the election, but it is more likely under Trump’s leadership.
So there are elections coming up, which directly affect the world situation perhaps more than any election ever before. The whole world is involved in the election monitors at the beginning of November.
Janne “Rysky” Riiheläinen
The author’s mood in these elections cannot be described as tense – rather he is terrified.