He had to be at the forefront under the Capitol dome. No doubt next to Bernard Arnault and behind Joe Biden, Bill Clinton, or George W. Bush. The day before Donald Trump’s swearing in January 20, Rodolphe Saadé was in Washington to participate in a series of events on the sidelines of the ceremony. After The letter, It was very little, but an imperative forced him to return to Marseille, where the group’s headquarters is located, CMA CGM, the third world maritime carrier. Part awarded, a new opportunity arose a month and a half later. Because, among other inclinations, Donald Trump has projects likely to concern the tricolor shipowner.
In his speech to Congress on March 4, the 47th President of the United States declaims, offensive: “To stimulate our industrial defense base, we will also resuscitate the American naval industry, including commercial and military construction. […] We used to build a lot of ships. We do not make a lot anymore, but we will produce very quickly. “Two days later, Rodolphe Saadé is invited to the oval office.
Under the eye of cameras and journalists, the Franco-Lebanese boss stands straight like a I In front of a map illustrating the freshly renowned “Gulf of America” - formerly Gulf of Mexico -, while the republican billionaire seated, hands crossed, behind the Desk resolute. The CMA CGM manager presents his investment project of 20 billion euros over four years across the Atlantic. The choice of the moment disconcerts. The day before, deploring the ideological turning point of the United States towards Ukraine, Emmanuel Macron-whose proximity to Rodolphe Saadé is of public notoriety-announced to the French “a change of era”. At the same time, Donald Trump glorified the redemption project by a consortium led by the BlackRock asset manager of the majority participations of the Hong Kong Conglomerate CK Hutchison in two ports located on both sides of the Panama Canal, another obsession of the American president in recent months.
Relegated to the lower division
These cascade deals are part of a wider strategy, which aims to put the United States to the Center for International Maritime Trade. Geographically, the first economic power remains a major destination for world container ships, as it depends on its imports from its partners-China and the European Union in mind. On the other hand, industrially and materially speaking, the country has long been relegated to the lower division. Since the Second World War, the United States had abandoned the idea of being a great maritime nation. An assumed choice: the country has found other levers to develop its economy without having large companies or displaying a dominant national pavilion. He had a shipbuilding industry, but it declined from the 1980s, when public subsidies melted.
Other actors have taken the place. “Today, 75 % of large containers are assembled in Asia, more than half of which in China. Naval construction requires adapted infrastructure, know-how and a skilled workforce, explains Frédéric Moncany of Saint-Aignan, president of the National Maritime Higher School (ENSM). However, in a sector where the margins are low, competitiveness is based first on reduced wage costs, A model that China masters, which led to the disappearance of shipyards in America, but also in Europe. “
The United States can only attack themselves
Donald Trump therefore starts from a blank page, or almost. “He seeks to relaunch a two -centuries old industry, when we have neither the necessary infrastructure nor the raw materials at a competitive cost [NDLR : en particulier l’acier]. The United States is dominant in artificial intelligence, robotics, quantum IT, or even software. But we are much less efficient in the heavy naval industry, “recognizes Christopher Padilla, under-secretary of international trade from 2007 to 2009, under George W. Bush. Another black point: an almost nonexistent workforce to build and have ships sail.” At the end of the chain, sailors are needed. However, the United States has little in view of the country’s size, and the profession does not attract because of its constraints. To seduce the candidates, very high wages should be offered, which would increase the costs of the sector more and would harm competitiveness, “said Frédéric Moncany de Saint-Aignan.
Just as he accuses-falsely-Taiwan of having “stolen” the Americans leadership in electronic chips, the president here uses his favorite argument: blaming competitors of the United States to justify, behind, coercive measures intended to recreate a manufacturing industry on American soil. “This geopolitical vision does not correspond to the reality of the global economy. American capitalism has disengaged from the maritime sector, and no one killed its industry. Trump is driven by a feeling of revenge,” notes Paul Tourret, director of the Higher Institute of Maritime Economy (ISEMAR).
The means of action are now known. Not only does the US administration plan to tax the Chinese pavilion beating as they can do in a port of the United States, but also those built in China! An earthquake in global maritime trade: almost all companies will be affected. “Like any politician, Donald Trump tries things, then returns back if it does not work. He experiences, with the objective, always, to promote American interests. At the start, his proposals may seem unreasonable, but, then, he will offer more moderate solutions”, wants to believe the Canadian Jean-Paul Rodrigue, professor in the Department of Maritime Affairs at A & M University.
The American consumer will pay the final invoice
In the meantime, it is the whole balance of the sector that threatens to collapse. To avoid being taxed with each new stopover, the container ships will concentrate their deliveries in the United States on the four largest ports: Long Beach and Los Angeles, to the west; New York-New Jersey and Norfolk, to the east. This will lead them to abandon the intermediate infrastructure. With the consequence of significantly increasing the risk of congestion. “In practice, the American ports are relatively ineffective. Because of the unions, they work not continuously, but rather on office hours, only weekdays. Port traffic jams are inevitable, assures Christopher Padilla. We could find ourselves in a situation similar to that of the pandemic, with cargos blocked in the sea while waiting to be able to dock.”
On arrival, and contrary to what Donald Trump claims, the consumer will pay the bill. “The owner of the ship will eventually repercussions on importers, who will do the same on the price of products. It is a measure which is only intended to target China, for political purposes,” said John D. McCown, researcher at the Center for Maritime Strategy. Not to mention, adds the OLAF MERK OECD economist, the repercussions “on other industries in the United States, including agriculture and oilwhich export massively “. At the risk that the American economy will definitively take water.
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