(Finance) – Italian economic policy has returned to the narrow path of reducing the deficit, and this also has effects on the path to growth, which has resumed the slow pace of the years before the pandemic. The GDP increases return to the “zero point” rangeand even the lively employment growth of the last three years is probably destined to slow down. He states it REF Researchestimating one GDP growth of 0.6% in 2025 (same as 2024) and 0.9% in 2026.
THE consumer prices are estimated at 1.7% in 2025 and 1.5% in 2026, the unemployment rate to 6.4% this year and 6.2% next.
THE’net debt is estimated at -3.5% of GDP in 2025 and -3% in 2026, while the PA debt it is forecast at 138.5% of GDP this year and 139.8% next year.
REF Ricerche explains that Italy shares many of the trends of the European economy. However, he recorded one budget policy mismatchwith a more expansionary phase from 2023 and a marked correction of public finances from this year. There are therefore risks, especially linked to the performance of the construction sector once the boost from the superbonus has run out. During 2024, the decline in investments in housing was partly offset by other investments in construction, above all because the cycle of public works is strengthening, also as a result of the PNRR works.
The increase in public investments planned until 2026 is significant, although it will probably be possible to count on at least an extension of the deadlines for the completion of the programs. However, it remains that the strengthening investment spendingin a context marked by programs to improve balances, translates into a decline in current spending which will also have effects on the trend in demand.
The researchers underline that in Italy the cyclical indicators remain very uncertain. The prospects are also marked by the restrictive orientation of budget policy. The net spending targets have been incorporated into the Budget Law for 2025 and will lead to a deficit close to 3 percent of GDP in 2026, from levels above 7 percent between 2020 and 2023. “If realized, this correction it would be the largest in Italian history. We see the positive effects on the trend of the spread, and the negative ones on the growth prospects”, we read in the report.