Day of all dangers in Italy. This Wednesday, Council President Mario Draghi addresses Parliament. He should announce whether or not he remains at the head of the government. To understand the foundations of this crisis, L’Express interviewed Franco Bassanini. A former minister, deputy and senator, this Italian politician now chairs the Astrid Foundation, an institute for studies on the reform of institutions. Maintenance.
L’Express: How can Mario Draghi want to resign at such a delicate time for his country?
Franco Bassanini: The 2018 elections did not produce a clearly defined governing majority. The 5 Star Movement had collected a little more than a third of the votes. It was followed by a coalition of the right, actually divided into three parties (Matteo Salvini’s League; Berlusconi’s Forza Italia; Giorgia Meloni’s Fratelli d’Italia). The Democratic Party (PD) arrived last. In Parliament, initially, a majority bringing together the League and the 5 Stars was formed. Then we had another parliamentary majority, this time with the 5 Stars and the PD. But in both cases, these were majorities made up of political forces elected on very different programmes. These forces came together with prior compromises on measures to be taken, but they did not resist their contradictions. When the majority made up of the PD and the 5 Stars split, the President of the Republic Sergio Mattarella called on a personality of great prestige and politically neutral, Mario Draghi, to compose a government of national unity. Only Fratelli d’Italia and a small cohort of far-left parliamentarians remained in the opposition. Draghi had almost 90% of the parliamentarians with him.
In all the great coalitions born of an emergency situation, the majority is broad, but without cohesion of programmes. For a year and a half, each party of the majority – but especially the 5 Stars and the League – raised questions of program, for them of identity, on which they felt distant from Draghi. He made some concessions to them, but continued on his way. The leader of the 5 Stars, former Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte, decided not to vote on one of the last government measures on which Draghi had placed a vote of confidence. Draghi then retained that there were no longer the conditions on which he had constituted his government. The President then asked him to return to Parliament to verify the state of the majority.
Throughout Italy, we have seen these days an important mobilization to ask Mario Draghi to stay in place. From Milan to Rome, unions, elected officials, entrepreneurs and even grassroots citizens demonstrated. What does this unprecedented mobilization inspire in you?
It is the expression of an objective situation: Italy is confronted today with great emergencies: the war in Ukraine; gas supply and price; inflation and the growing risk of pushing families into poverty; spread increase [indicateur de l’écart des taux d’intérêt des emprunts d’état italien et allemand] and the deterioration of public finances; the implementation of the recovery plan… We need a government that is quickly capable of adopting the necessary measures.
“There are still difficult reforms to put in place”
Draghi was able to do this because of his skill, authority and international prestige, and because he had a large majority that allowed him to resist the claims of some electorally motivated parties. In the interest of the country, Draghi should be able to continue until next spring when the current legislature will end. This period is decisive, in particular because Italy, which obtained the largest piece of the European recovery plan (almost 200 billion euros) must respect the stages provided for in the plan. It has done so so far, but there are still difficult reforms to put in place. By next spring we can hope that a good part of the current challenges will be resolved: the war, the reforms and investments of the recovery plan and the price of energy, which we hope will return to more reasonable.
Despite everything, we have the impression that most parties want to anticipate the elections. Can’t we then wonder if the parties still represent the Italians?
It is a complex question. The right-wing coalition parties are very tempted by the idea of early elections because the polls give them the winners with, by virtue of the current electoral law, an absolute majority. These parties are ready to go to the elections together, but with programs that are not consistent with each other. On international politics, for example, Forza Italia is Europeanist and Atlanticist. Fratelli d’Italia is Atlanticist but Eurosceptic. The League has internal currents shared between Europeanists and Eurosceptics, between Atlanticists and pro-Russians, or at least attentive to Russian interests.
The 5 Star Movement is in deep crisis. Polls give him 10% of voting intentions, while he had obtained 33% in 2018. There was a split with the departure of Luigi di Maio, the Minister of Foreign Affairs, who is firmly aligned with Mario Draghi . Its leader, Giuseppe Conte, does not want elections now, but he hopes to revive his electorate with demands likely to mobilize the base, for example by refusing the construction of a waste treatment site in Rome.
But it is obvious that the other majority parties cannot agree with his claims. The Democratic Party which supports Draghi planned to stand for election with the 5 Stars, to counter the weight of the right. But this is no longer possible, after the 5 Stars triggered Draghi’s resignation.
In 2018, most parliamentarians were elected on populist platforms. Today, we talk about the crisis of the 5 Star Movement, but can’t we also talk about a crisis of populism?
It’s hard to say, because the concept of populism changes depending on whether it is given a more or less pejorative connotation. The 5 Star Movement was effectively a mixture of positions of protest and criticism of the political establishment with a plural cultural background of leftist movements, rightwing populism, etc. This aggregation of positions has come apart during this legislature . Part of the 5-star electorate went to the sovereignist right, especially in Fratelli d’Italia, another part was very critical of the Movement’s participation in government…
A French electorate can better understand what is happening on the right. The League is formally allied with Marine Le Pen on Eurosceptic and rather sovereignist positions, but within the League, there is a strong Europeanist component. It should be remembered that originally, the League was a federalist and Europeanist party which wanted a Europe of the regions. It is a party where different cultural histories coexist. Today Forza Italia and the League say: “we are willing to support Draghi until the end of the legislature, but without Conte’s 5 stars, because they have become disloyal and set unacceptable conditions”.
“A way out of the crisis is possible with a narrower majority”
In fact, with the support of the Democratic Party, there is now a possible majority without the 5 Stars in Parliament. For the League and Forza Italia, it’s the moment of truth. Are they, like the vast majority of Italian businesses and citizens, really convinced that Draghi’s departure would be a disaster for the country or do they want to anticipate the elections, without taking responsibility? In the first hypothesis, a way out of the crisis is possible with a narrower majority, but which would still bring together two-thirds of Parliament, and where Draghi reaffirms his program: Europeanist, Atlanticist and in line with the requirements of the European recovery plan, with a diversification of the country’s energy supply to free itself as quickly as possible from the problem of Russian supplies, and a ceiling gas price. For the management of public finances, Draghi advocates a responsible line, without increasing the deficit of the State – which, moreover, is reduced quite clearly by the effects of inflation on public revenue.
But Salvini has been very critical of Draghi for a year. Do you think it’s possible that he can change register?
Salvini criticized Draghi a lot. The latter made some concessions to Salvini, but finally, in Parliament, the League did vote for the government’s projects. The League represents many local and regional administrations and a good part of the productive world of the north of the country, very attached to the line of Draghi. For them, European integration is fundamental. The Italian economy is closely intertwined with the European economic system. The manufacturing sector, in particular, which has a lot of subcontractors for German companies. The latest figures show strong growth in Italian exports, exceeding forecasts, and the largest share of Italian exports are to the EU, especially to Germany and France. However, the League represents an important part of this world. Salvini, who is not stupid, understands well what the social and economic base of the League is.
If Draghi is willing to take the risk to continue, I think the League will continue to do what it has been doing for a year and a half: some critical statements but, ultimately, the approval of government measures.