(Finance) – The Italian labor market “even in the coming quarters it should affected only to a limited extent by the slowdown in the economic cycle“. This is the opinion of the Studies and Research Department of Intesa Sanpaolo contained in the report entitled “The compass of the Italian economy”, released today. The main summary indicators of the labor market have improved in recent months, even if the recovery in the activity rate hides a large decline in the labor force due to demographic dynamics.
According to the analysis of Paolo Mameli, Macro Italia economist, le businesses so far “they seem to have regarded the difficulties as temporary linked to cost increases, and the pandemic and energy crises do not seem to have aggravated territorial differences”.
THE prospective risks they derive in the short term from the possible employment effects of the tightening of tax incentives in construction, and, in the medium term, from the potentially stagflationary impact of the contraction of the labor force.
Intesa Sanpaolo estimates that the GDP Italy will grow by 0.6% in 2023, after +3.9% in 2022, before accelerating again to +1.8% in 2024. industrial production it is expected to rise 0.2% this year and 2.1% next year. L’inflation it is seen at 5.5% in 2023 and 1.8% in 2024.