A betrayal, an affront. Worse, a denial of democracy… Here are some of the sweeping declarations made by a large part of the French political class to Ursula von der Leyen, since the signing of the agreement on Friday, December 6 trade between the European Union and the Mercosur countries. Political theater. Firstly because the President of the Commission had long announced her desire to put an end to the marathon of negotiations before the end of the year, even though Brazilian President Lula had put pressure on her during the last G20 on the theme “Now is where we will see China”. Then, because everything remains to be done.
This “signature” is in reality very symbolic since the text must now be voted on in the Council of European Ministers responsible for the subject, then in the European Parliament. Beforehand, a long journey awaits this agreement which must be transformed into a legal regulation translated into 27 languages. A long-distance race which will last almost the entire first half of 2025, according to the predictions of a connoisseur of the mysteries of Brussels. No vote, therefore, in the Council or in Parliament before next summer, for application at best in winter 2026.
A blocking minority
Until then, politics will regain its rights. To derail the agreement, France must bring together a blocking minority made up of at least four countries representing 35% of the European population. For the moment, only Austria and Ireland have shown themselves to be frankly hostile. The score is therefore not there and all eyes are turning towards Italy and Poland. Two countries which have maintained ambiguity in recent weeks. Which side will the coin fall on?
In Rome, Forza Italia, one of the components of Giorgia Meloni’s baroque coalition, is in favor, unlike Matteo Salvini’s League which has largely defended the main agricultural union led by a cattle breeder, one of most sensitive sectors. The position of the Italian Iron Lady could therefore depend, ultimately, on the amount of financial compensation that transalpine farmers will receive.
In Poland, Prime Minister Donald Tusk’s procrastination can be explained above all by the proximity of the presidential elections next May, and by the ongoing renegotiation of the free trade agreement with Ukraine, the real Polish red flag. In the meantime, in this political quagmire, Europe’s real economic interests are – unfortunately – taking second place.