(Finance) – A very uncertain external economic and geopolitical context continues to weigh on the trust of the companies, which in February has worsened in all sectors except the manufacturing one. Consumers, however, remained relatively optimistic. This is what emerges from the analysis of Paolo Pizzoli, Senior Economist by Eng.
Consumers remain optimistic, perhaps helped by the employment hold
“Consumer trust, improved for the second consecutive month, – reads the analysis – was the strength of today’s publication. While reporting a deterioration of the current economic situation, consumers do not see a negative impact on their budget position nor show growing concerns for future unemployment. It is interesting to note that consumers report a growing willingness to buy durable assets. Stable, relatively low inflation and decent wage growth, combined with the drop in interest rates, is perceived as not temporary.
Trust in the manufacturing sector is stabilizing
“For the second consecutive month, the manufacturing sector is not the weak point. Trust in the manufacturing sector – notes Pizzoli – recorded a slight improvement in February. To tell the truth, it is a confirmation of a stabilization process rather than a proof of an imminent recovery. If on the one hand the orders have slightly improved, on the other the stability of the stock indicator suggests that there are still no A significant cycle of reconstitution of stocks.
Trust in the construction sector is holding better than it feared
“The slight decrease in confidence in buildings leaves the index at high levels, confirming that the gradual elimination of the Superbonus incentive is not causing a free fall of the building activity. The concomitant impact of the infrastructure investments supported by the funds for the recovery – continues the analysis – is clearly contributing to compensate. of employment expectations, not even in the sub -sector of homes.
The drop in trust in the services deserves careful monitoring
“The most worrying aspect of today’s data – underlines analysts – concerns the service sector, where trust has decreased for the second consecutive time. In this case, deterioration has concerned transport and storage, information and communication and other services, with the exception of tourism, where trust has improved for the fourth consecutive time. In a context of stagnation of the manufacturing sector, the role of the services as a growth engine remains essential, at least in the short term “.
“Overall, the data on February trust – concludes the analysis – confirm that the first quarter of 2025 is not intended to mark a radical change compared to the weak closure of 2024. The weakening of trust in the services deserves to be monitored carefully, as the recovery of the manufacturing sector will require time to materialize. We still expect a small positive growth of the GDP in the first quarter, but a third quarter, but a third quarter. consecutive of flat growth would not be a great surprise “.