On Sunday, President Joe Biden announced that he is dropping out of the presidential race, with only months to go until Election Day.
TV4’s USA correspondent Tomas Kvarnkullen believes that it was only a matter of time before the president would make the decision.
How expected is it that Biden drops out?
It was only a matter of time before the pressure would be too great – even if Joe Biden showed few signs that his campaign was about to end. For weeks, the number of members of Congress urging him to step aside has only grown. Biden has dismissed the critics. Several heavy representatives in the party – among others Barack Obama and the former speaker Nancy Pelosi – have by all accounts had growing doubts about Biden’s candidacy. It may have ultimately caused Biden himself to hesitate.
Later this week, Biden will explain more about the background to his decision. But what he must have finally realized is that after 50 years in American politics, his political legacy was finally at stake. A stinging loss in November had left Biden remembered as the isolated candidate who refused to recognize what his party colleagues warned early on – that his candidacy would give Donald Trump a sure electoral victory.
Has anything like this happened in American history before?
There were doubts about Biden’s candidacy even when he announced his decision to run for re-election. But few believed then that Biden’s campaign would come to this dramatic end so late in the election year. It has happened in the past that sitting presidents refrain from seeking re-election, but the circumstances this time are different. What distinguishes Biden from the previous presidents is, for example, that their decisions have come earlier, not with barely four months left until the election.
Harry Truman withdrew in March before the 1952 election, when a majority of voters in the Democratic primary did not support him in the state of New Hampshire.
Lyndon B. Johnson also declined to run for re-election in March ahead of the 1968 election after his approval ratings plummeted.
Who is most likely to take as a candidate and what are the chances of beating Trump?
Kamala Harris is arguably the most likely. But that doesn’t mean there are other Democrats now thinking about how they could pass the vice president. Some Democrats have advocated an open process, a sort of mini-primary election. The risk, however, is an upsetting process at the same time that the Republicans have already shown a united front around Donald Trump.
Should Harris end up being the candidate, her choice of vice presidential candidate could also be decisive. Among those mentioned are Governors Josh Shapiro of Pennsylvania and Roy Cooper of North Carolina. One of the more unexpected suggestions heard is whether Harris could choose a Republican as his vice presidential running mate. Liz Cheney for example, the former top Republican who became one of Donald Trump’s worst enemies. As Trump-loyal voters ensured she lost her seat in the House of Representatives, Cheney said she would do everything she could to stop Trump from being re-elected.
It would be a huge blow, of course, but we’ve already gotten used to the fact that anything can happen during this chaotic election year.