Director of mercenary company Wagner Yevgeny Prigozhin started an armed uprising in Russia at the end of June and demanded a change in the country’s military leadership. It was hoped in the West that Russia’s internal crisis would weaken Russia’s ability to operate on the war front, but so far Ukraine’s achievements in the period following the uprising have been moderate.
Fighting is currently taking place both in the east and in the south. Deputy Minister of Defense of Ukraine Hanna Maljar says that operations continue in the Bahmut region, on the border between Donetsk and Zaporizhia, and in the western region of Zaporizhia.
Kherson: Ukraine strengthened its positions on the southern bank of the Dnieper
Last week, several war bloggers reported that Ukrainian troops crossed the heavily flooded Dnieper River in early June and dug in positions on the southern bank of the river. During the weekend, the British Ministry of Defense also agreed with the bloggers’ view.
It is estimated that Ukraine has liberated the village of Dachi, located on the southern bank of the Dnieper. The village is in the immediate vicinity of the city of Kherson, which was liberated by Ukraine last year, and the Antonovsky bridge, which was destroyed by Russia.
Ukraine is said to be seeking to establish a bridgehead between the Kherson and Datchi in order to move more equipment across the river and continue its advance towards the Crimean peninsula.
Spokesman of the Southern Military District of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Natalija Humenyuk commented on last week’s lively activity in the Hersoni region by simply stating that the situation is difficult.
The leader of the puppet regime installed by Russia in the Kherson region Vladimir Saldo claimed on Monday to a Russian news agency For the cup, that all Ukrainian attempts to cross the Dnieper would have failed. However, bloggers who follow the war closely have repeatedly denied Saldo’s speeches, and said that Ukraine has succeeded in strengthening its positions on the southern bank of the river.
At the beginning of June, the Dnieper River, which runs through the Kherson region, was heavily flooded after the collapse of the Kahovka dam. The collapse of the dam destroyed another convenient place for Ukraine to cross the Dnieper. Now the Ukrainian mayor of Nova Kahovka Volodymyr Kovalenko says that Russian troops have returned to the city that was flooded last month.
Russia is said to have occupied buildings on the city’s main street, which runs along the banks of the Dnieper River. According to Kovalenko, Russia has built firing stations for heavy machine guns on the upper floors of buildings. According to him, the Russians regularly fire from the city at the settlements of Vesele and Kozatske on the north bank of the river.
– The enemy has not left the town of Nova Kahovka. In reality, the situation is completely the opposite, as the number of enemies is now much greater than before, Kovalenko continues.
Military strategy teacher at the Swedish National Defense University Joakim Paasikiven according to the Kherson region, there has not yet been any information that Ukraine has launched a wider attack in Kherson. However, even small movements constantly force Russia to evaluate which front to commit its forces to.
Zaporizhia: Mines are slowing down the advance in the south
In Zaporizhzhia, Ukraine’s counterattack has progressed leisurely over the past week. Ukraine’s deputy defense minister said on Monday that last week Ukraine managed to increase the areas liberated in the counter-offensive operation from 37 square kilometers. According to him, 28 square kilometers of these have been released in the south in the Zaporizhia region.
According to Paasikivi, Ukraine’s counter-offensive operation has by no means failed, even if it is progressing slowly.
– There are still indications that Ukraine is steadily moving forward. In the south, problems for Ukraine are caused by Russia’s minefields, which are excessive compared to all guidelines.
Aleksanteri Institute Visiting researcher Ilmari Käihkö says that the counterattack will be very challenging for Ukraine because it does not have air superiority in Ukraine.
– It was originally wrong to assume that Ukraine would just march straight through Russia’s defense lines, says Käihkö.
According to Paasikivi, too great expectations were built for a counterattack in Western countries. In military circles and among the leaders of Western countries, the situation has certainly not come as a similar surprise, Paasikivi states.
According to the British Ministry of Defence, Russia has achieved some success with mines and attacks on Ukrainian military equipment. At the same time, British intelligence sources say that the Russian forces in the region are still suffering from overloaded units and a lack of artillery ammunition.
According to Paasikivi, despite everything, Ukraine has managed to break through the Russians’ first line of defense in a few areas. Paasikivi also still sees the possibility that at some point Ukraine would achieve a major breakthrough, allowing it to advance with the help of firepower, mobility and protection provided by Western tanks.
Donetsk: Russia is gathering military forces in the north
Currently, the fiercest fighting is taking place in the Bahmut region of Donetsk.
Last week, Ukraine claims to have liberated an area of nine square kilometers in the area. Several open intelligence sources point to most of this area in the Kurdiumivka region south of Bahmut.
Ukrainian commander Denys Yaroslavskyi said last week that Ukraine is working to liberate the village of Klishchijivka, south of Bahmut, and the village of Berhivka, north of Bahmut. According to Yaroslavskyi, the liberation of the villages would allow Russian troops to besiege the city of Bahmut.
According to Paasikivi, Russia has also tried to attack in the region, but the success of the Russian forces has been very limited so far. However, he does not want to judge who currently has the upper hand in the war.
– The main thing is that Ukraine has the initiative and decision-making power in every region as to where the battles take place.
– The default value is that the attacking party suffers greater losses, but the biggest crew losses are still caused by artillery fire, and not by infantry or mines. So far, Ukraine has sought to limit the effectiveness of Russian artillery fire.
Spokesman of the Eastern Military District of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Serhiy Cherevatyin according to Russia is currently gathering a huge number of troops in the area between Kupyansk and Lyman in Donetsk and Luhansk. According to Cherevaty, Russia has concentrated 180,000 soldiers on the eastern front, of which 120,000 are located in the aforementioned area between Kupyansk and Lyman.
Cherevatyi says that Russia is directing the majority of its artillery fire to the area in question. He did not take a position on whether Russia is possibly launching its own major offensive in the region to force Ukraine’s attention away from its own goals for a while.
A counterattack can end in two ways
The Russian defense minister who has been in the eye of Wagner leader Prigozhin and has remained out of the public eye for a long time Sergei Shoigu said on Monday that the uprising did not affect Russia’s actions in Ukraine.
According to Paasikivi, the effects of the short-lived rebellion are vanishingly small.
– Wagner’s forces had already handed over responsibility for the battles in Bahmut to the Russian army, and retreated to their camps. Even if some of them return to the front at some point, their number is not terribly large, Paasikivi estimates.
According to Ilmari Käihkö, all possible consequences of the rebellion are not yet known.
– If Russia starts cleaning up its military leadership, it can have short-term or long-term consequences. We also don’t know what will happen to Prigozhin’s Concord company, which has been managing Russia’s food supply. If it disappears quickly, it will affect Russian logistics, Käihkö estimates.
According to Paasikivi, Ukraine now has until October to achieve a decisive breakthrough and make the war challenging for Russia, before weather conditions again weaken the conditions for continuing the attack.
– If Ukraine succeeds in advancing in the south and cutting off Russia’s land connection to Crimea, it can force Russia into negotiations to agree on the fate of other Ukrainian regions. If Russia loses Crimea to Ukraine, it will inevitably lead to a change of power in Russia, making it very difficult to predict the outcome, Paasikivi estimates.
Another option, according to Paasikivi, is that Ukraine suffers such large losses in the counterattack that it is unable to continue counterattacks. At that time, the West must prepare for a long war.
In any case, according to Paasikivi, it is certain that the fighting in Ukraine will not end this year.
Corrected 4.7. at 18:39: Corrected Paasikivi’s title from professor to teacher.