University teacher Martti J. Kari estimates that the goal of Russia’s military movement is to prevent Ukraine’s NATO membership in the long run. Russia is not targeting anything special about Finland at the moment, but it is continuing its hybrid warfare.
Russia’s increased pressure on Ukraine continues and there are no signs of easing. The movements of Russian troops on the Ukrainian border have been monitored particularly closely.
However, following them is useless and secondary, says a teacher of intelligence analysis at the University of Jyväskylä. Martti J. Kari. He doesn’t think war will ignite, but if it does, it’s an air war.
– After the Gulf War, Russia has developed its air force according to the US model, and its strike capability is quite good both in terms of equipment and operations. If, and it’s triple if, the war starts, it starts with air strikes. Ukraine does not have the air defense to respond to the airstrike, Kari says.
Kari has known Ukraine for decades. His background is in military intelligence, where he served from the late 1980s until the end of 2017 until he transferred to college.
In any case, there is a significant number of Russian troops near the Ukrainian border, the latest estimates clearly speak of the strength of more than a hundred thousand soldiers around Ukraine.
Anyway, only the troops are not there, it is a large-scale military operation.
– The purpose of the ground forces on Ukraine’s borders is to carry out the task assigned to them by the Russian political leadership. It doesn’t matter if there are more or less ten thousand men, Kari says of the troop movements.
The aim is to prevent Ukraine from joining NATO
Instead of the troops, Kari is currently watching what the Russian Duma is doing. The Duma has decided to nominate the president To Vladimir Putin Recognition of the independence of the Donetsk and Luhansk regions of the Donbass region in eastern Ukraine.
However, Putin has not been inclined to recognize independence, but is said (go to another service) (HS) for the implementation of the Minsk II Agreement. The agreement, created in 2015, defines a ceasefire in eastern Ukraine and gives Donetsk and Luhansk autonomous status as part of Ukraine.
According to Kari, the negotiations between Russia and the Western powers are more broadly about the Minsk II agreement and its implementation.
– My own theory is that Russia is tired of the cost of the war and wants to implement Minsk II. Underlying this is the idea that without Ukraine, Russia is not an empire, and Russia wants to be an empire. It wants defensible borders to the west, and Ukraine should be part of them.
The autonomy of the Donbass regions, on the other hand, is part of Russia’s efforts to prevent Ukraine from joining NATO. As autonomous regions, Donetsk and Luhansk would be involved in Ukraine’s decision-making, and would give Russia the opportunity to stop Ukraine’s application for NATO.
– This is exactly what is behind Russia’s project on the autonomy of the so-called Eastern People’s Republics or rebel regions, and that is why Minsk II is so important to Russia, Kari says.
A Russian researcher at the Foreign Policy Institute also shared ‘s interview Jyrki Lavikainen and Finland’s former ambassador to Moscow Hannu Himanen.
Finland the target of the Russian hybrid war
Finland has watched with concern Russia’s growing pressure on the Ukrainian border: it is not very far to Kiev.
According to Martti J. Kari, Finland is the target of Russia’s ongoing hybrid warfare.
– However, I believe that the Russians are quite sensitive now, and will not increase the pressure on Finland, he says.
According to Kari, in Russian thinking, war and peace are the extremes of the continuum. There is a wide range of space in between, and neither is Russia, and Russia is constantly operating in these areas.
The gray area includes, for example, information influences, airspace violations and allegations of child abduction.
– There are also, for example, the Finnish team playing in KHL and the Russian nuclear power. In addition, we still have useful idiots spreading the Russian message.
You can discuss the topic here 19.2. until 11 p.m.