Leader of the Russian mercenary army Wagner Yevgeny Prigozhin appeared on Wednesday for the first time on video since his attempted coup.
Prigozhin’s whereabouts and whether he is even alive have been mysteries since the attempted Midsummer Day uprising.
The details of the agreement that ended the rebellion have also been shrouded in obscurity. According to media reports, Prigozhin and the president Vladimir Putin agreed that Prigozhin would move with his troops to Belarus.
A recent video seems to confirm that the basic information about the agreement is correct, according to a well-known British Russia researcher Mark Galeotti.
Prigozhin and at least some of the Wagner forces are now in Belarus and they are training Belarusian soldiers there.
– The most likely thing is that the video is genuine, Galeotti assessed in a telephone interview with .
Belarus has also released videos in recent days that allegedly show Wagner fighters on training missions.
According to Galeotti, Prigozhin also seems to feel safe in Belarus.
This is indicated by the fact that Prigozhin criticizes the Russian war in Ukraine in a video. He calls the situation at the front shameful and says that Wagner could only return to the war if it did not bring them shame.
Prigozhin justified his rebellion specifically by the war command and the defense minister Sergei Shoigun with incompetence. Looks like he’s not backing down.
– It is clear that Prigožin has not been humiliated or tamed. He is still independent to some extent, says Galeotti.
Why is Prigozhin still free?
From the outside, it seems strange that President Putin allows Prigozhin to continue his life at large. According to Galeotti, there are two reasons for this.
First, Putin still needs Prigozhin. Russia has gained new allies, especially from African countries, because it has been able to offer autocratic leaders the services of Prigozhin’s many companies.
Prigozhin’s business empire includes not only Wagner’s mercenaries but also companies specializing in media and election manipulation, the most famous of which is the so-called St. Petersburg Troll Factory.
– In a way, it was a package offer that could be called support services for an authoritarian regime, says Galeotti.
The business network is very complex and Prigožin is personally involved in many contracts. It is very difficult to replace him, at least not quickly.
The interpretation is strengthened by the fact that Prigozhin himself talks about Africa in his video. According to him, it is the new direction of Wagner’s fighters after Belarus.
Second, Putin must at least outwardly abide by the agreement he made with Prigozhin, even if it makes him look weak.
Otherwise, similar agreements would no longer be successful in a tight spot.
– It may be that in the long term he will take revenge on Prigožin, says Galeotti.
Prigozhin still did not survive his rebellion without losses. The media owned by him have been closed and are ending up in the hands of businessmen who are more reliable for Putin.
How does Wagner’s departure affect the war?
According to Mark Galeotti, Wagner’s departure from Russia will not immediately affect the war of aggression in Ukraine. Wagner’s troops had already been withdrawn from the front after the very bloody battles of Bahmut.
The situation will change if the Ukrainian counterattack is successful. Then Wagner’s departure can be of great importance.
– The idea was probably that Wagner could have been used as a reserve force if Ukraine gets through the Russian defense lines, Galeotti estimates.
Galeotti considers the idea that Wagner could threaten Ukraine from Belarus to be ridiculous. The troops handed over their heavy weapons to the Russian armed forces, and there are no more than a few thousand of them.
According to Galeotti, Prigozhin’s Midsummer Rebellion was a serious blow to Putin’s position in Russia’s leadership.
– The whole mess has left Putin much, much weaker, says Galeotti.
According to Galeotti, both Western countries and Russia assumed before the uprising that Putin has complete control over the security apparatus. The rebellion proved that this was not the case.
Wagner was able to advance almost freely to the gates of Moscow, and the security forces made little effort to stop it.
– Whatever the next crisis, Putin knows that he cannot necessarily trust his security forces. I believe that this will also start to change other people’s thoughts about how powerful Putin is, says Galeotti.