ISW, a think tank closely following the war in Ukraine, estimates that the power struggle between Wagner leader Yevgeny Prigozhin and the Russian Ministry of Defense has probably reached its culmination point.
The US think tank Institute for the Study of War (ISW) sees that especially the Minister of Defense Sergei Shoigu and commander of the armed forces Valery Gerasimov are now seeking to wear down Wagner’s mercenary forces in Bahmut to undermine Wagner’s position as leader and chief financier Yevgeny Prigozhin influence in the Kremlin.
The advance of Russian forces in Bahmut has slowed down significantly since Ukraine decided to withdraw from the eastern parts of the city. Wagner has recently been forced to rely more heavily on his elite forces fighting alongside the prisoners to advance his positions in Bahmut.
ISW believes that additional reinforcements from Crimea in February may be a sign that Wagner’s so-called elite soldiers are running low. The Ukrainian armed forces have claimed that Russia is losing seven soldiers for every Ukrainian.
At the beginning of the year, the Russian Ministry of Defense is known to have limited Wagner’s ability to recruit more soldiers from Russian prisons, which has forced Wagner to admit that it is dependent on the Russian armed forces. Even last year, Prigozhin managed to recruit 40,000 Russian prisoners into his ranks.
In addition, the Russian Ministry of Defense has repeatedly refused to respond to Prigozhin’s requests to send additional ammunition to his troops. Prigozhin has hinted that Russia will use Wagner in the heaviest urban battles of the war to spare its own troops, and has hinted at a withdrawal from Bahmut.
According to ISW, the threats and complaints in question are proof that Prigozhin is aware of the extent of the problems between him and the Ministry of Defense.