(Tiper Stock Exchange) – The growth of the world economy is slowing down and so is Italywhich did worse than other major European economies in the second quarter, but the labor market remains healthy and consumer sentiment is declining due to worsening opinions on the general economic situation. bIt is what emerges from the last one Monthly note from Istat.
The most recent estimates of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) – recalls the Statistical Institute – they predict a rate of for this year and next 3% global GDP growth (+3.5% in 2022) which discounts the effects of the interest rate hike process implemented by the main central banks. Inflation is decelerating in almost all countries with a more gradual path for the core component of the index
In June, for the second consecutive month, the seasonally adjusted index of industrial production in Italy marked an increase short-term trend that affects all sectors, with the exception of consumer goods. On average over the last three months, however, the cyclical change has remained negative. In the second quarter, the Italian economy in fact he recorded a result lower than the other main European partners. The GDP decreased by 0.3% in quarterly terms, bringing the variation acquired for 2023 to 0.8%.
Labor market conditions remain favourable. Employment growth was confirmed in June, bringing the total number of employed to 23 million 590 thousand, against a decrease in the unemployment rate to 7.4% (the youth rate to 21.3%I and inactivity to 33.5%.
underlying inflationmeasured excluding the more volatile price components, continued to show a descending dynamics: in July it decreased to 5.2% from 5.6% in the previous month). The shopping cartsummary of prices for food, personal care and home, showed a marginal slowdown (10.4% from 10.5%). In July, the harmonized index of consumer prices (HICP) it increased by 6.4% year on year (decelerating from +6.7% in June). The differential between our country and the euro area, while still positive, was further reduced by a tenth of a point compared to the previous month (1.1 pp).
Confidence indicators show mixed signals. In July, it is consumer confidence dropped mainly due to a worsening of opinions on the general economic situation and expectations on the personal situation. The composite index of companiesafter two consecutive push-ups, Instead, it showed an increase.