The estimated 1.5 million people packed into Rafah on the southern edge of Gaza are in constant need of breath, and the worst may be yet to come.
Israel has signaled that it will launch a ground attack on Rafah at the beginning of Ramadan, i.e. after March 10, if the terrorist organization Hamas does not meet Israel’s demands. At the weekend, it was reported about the progress of the ceasefire negotiations, but nothing definite has been agreed upon.
The accompanying satellite images show how Rafah has changed in three months. The February satellite image shows that the former bush land is now full of tents. The tents are visible as white dots in the middle parts of the image on the right.
†Children see fear in their eyes.â€
According to experts, a ground attack on Rafah would have catastrophic consequences. The death toll rose clearly.
– The hardest thing is trying to stay strong in front of the children. But the children see the fear in my eyes, says the one in Rafah Sabry. That’s not his real name.
Sabry is a local employee of the Save the Children organization, and the organization uses a name made up of him for security reasons. received the voicemails he sent from the system. We use them in the story because it is very difficult to get connections to Gaza.
In the voice messages, the workers talk about their fear of death in Rafah. The tents are visible as white dots in the middle parts of the image on the right.
Sabry says that she feels guilty because she and her children can stay in the house. In Rafah, there are tens of thousands of people in tents or even in the open air.
– Many are in tents with their children, and their beds are wet from the rain.
As many as 1.9 million of Gaza’s 2.3 million inhabitants have fled their homes since the beginning of October. The graphic shows how, for example, the population of Khan Younis was at its highest in December, after Israel urged people to flee there from Gaza further north. After that, people have fled once again, especially to Rafah.
“A ground attack is completely possibleâ€
One of Israel’s demands has been that Hamas release all hostages taken from Israel in connection with the October terrorist attack. Now it has been mentioned in the ceasefire negotiations that Hamas would release 35–40 hostages and Israel 200–300 Palestinians from Israeli prisons.
Hamas kidnapped about 250 people. According to Israel, there are still 130 hostages in Gaza, of which 30 have died.
According to the Hamas health authorities, more than 29,000 people in Gaza have died in the counterattack launched by Israel.
Middle East expert Saana Keskitalo the conflict resolution organization CMI considers an Israeli ground attack completely possible.
But he believes that releasing the hostages would prevent a ground attack in the planned form, or at least delay it.
– However, Israel would continue its military operation in Gaza by other means, because Israel’s goal is specifically to destroy Hamas, Keskitalo says.
According to Keskitalo, the hostages are Hamas’ only bargaining chip and a way to stop Israel. That is why Hamas does not give up hostages easily.
Four out of ten war victims are children
A few days ago, reached the Palestinian country director of the Save the Children organization Jason Lee from Amman, Jordan. Lee describes the impossible situation of those crammed into Rafah. People cannot return to the north, nor to the central part of Gaza.
– Both northern and central Gaza have been destroyed. Are they going to the Mediterranean? Lee asks.
A large part of the victims of the war in Gaza are children.
– At this moment, four out of ten civilian victims are children. Seven out of ten wounded are women or children, says Lee.
He describes in a harsh way why there are so many child victims.
– Children’s bodies are smaller, so their bones break more easily. They have less blood, so they bleed faster to dry, says Lee.
According to the Save the Children organization, 17,000 children have already lost both parents in Gaza.
As a result of the war, malnutrition is increasing in Gaza, and it also hits children the easiest. There is also a fear of the spread of diseases such as diarrhea and jaundice.
Save the Children is among those demanding an immediate ceasefire in Gaza.
– At this moment, none of the parties to the war respect international humanitarian law, Lee says.
This is also a big problem for aid organizations, which cannot move freely in Gaza.
The threat of a ground attack puts pressure on the ceasefire negotiations
According to CMI’s project manager Saana Keskitalo, a ground attack on Rafah would probably cause a lot of civilian casualties, which would increase the pressure on the ceasefire negotiations.
Negotiations have been held for a long time, for example in Cairo, Egypt. Qatar has said it will host another meeting this week.
There are many questions to be resolved. Hamas has previously demanded a permanent ceasefire, which Israel opposes.
Also adding to the pressure are the recommendations from the International Criminal Court to prevent a possible genocide in Gaza.
Israel’s most important supporter, the United States, has so far not used all the means at its disposal to put pressure on Israel. For example, the United States replaces Israel in the UN Security Council.
– The United States has increased financial and armed support to Israel throughout the Gaza war, Keskitalo points out.
The only small gap out of Gaza is to Egypt
A ground attack would also have a wider impact on the entire Middle East and would increase the pressure especially on Egypt.
Several media have reported based on satellite images that Egypt is building a large area isolated by concrete walls near the Gaza border. Egypt has denied that it is building an area for Palestinian refugees.
Keskitalo believes that Egypt is still preparing for such a possibility, while the pressure on Egypt is increasing. Israel has said it will evacuate the residents of Rafah before the ground attack, but no plan has been presented.
– In practice, people have no direction other than Egypt, where they even try to escape, Keskitalo says
The civilians of the war in Gaza are in a completely exceptional situation. In general, civilians have an escape route from the feet of war. Now it isn’t.