The surprise attack on Israel launched by the extremist organization Hamas on Saturday threatens to escalate into a conflict where at worst there could be three fronts: the Gaza Strip, the West Bank and Lebanon.
In this article, we will tell you where the conflict can develop when it escalates.
1. Israel’s ground attack on Gaza
Israel launched extensive airstrikes on Gaza right after Hamas’s surprise attack. At the same time, however, Israel has started planning a ground operation in the region. Israel has universal conscription, and the country has already ordered reservists into service.
The last time Israel’s armed forces carried out a ground attack on Gaza was during the 2014 war. Military analyst for the Israeli Jerusalem Post Yonah Jeremy Bob believes that Israel plans to carry out a ground operation even bigger than 2014.
– In a couple of days, Israel will assemble a massive force capable of crushing the Hamas forces in Gaza, he commented on the news channel for al-Jazeera.
However, Israel also has a lot to lose in a possible ground operation, reminds the professor of Middle Eastern studies at the University of Helsinki Hannu Juusola In an interview with .
– A ground operation inevitably means many Israeli victims. The battle in Gaza is an urban war, where the importance of Israel’s armed superiority is weakening, says Juusola.
Prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu has, according to the professor, been a known risk avoider who has been cautious about embarking on large-scale military operations. Now, however, the domestic political pressure for such a thing is strong, especially when Hamas is holding at least dozens of Israeli hostages in Gaza.
If Israel were to succeed in defeating Hamas with its ground forces, there would be really difficult questions about the future of the Gaza Strip.
– Israel would have to be directly responsible for the more than two million Palestinians living in Gaza, who have a very hostile attitude towards Israel after being practically in prison conditions for decades, says Juusola.
2. Escalation of unrest in the West Bank
Hamas has called on Palestinians living in Israel and the West Bank to participate in the attack.
The West Bank is a Palestinian area that is occupied by the Israeli armed forces and where the Israelis have established illegal settlements from the point of view of international law.
In the West Bank, bitterness has increased again in recent years, as Palestinians have died in clashes between the Israeli armed forces and settlers. It has been anticipated for a long time the third intifada that is, the Palestinian uprising against the Israeli occupation.
Because of this, Hamas’s attack on Israel has recently received a lot of support among the residents of the West Bank. There have already been regional disturbances.
– It is very possible that unrest will increase in the West Bank. That is what Hamas is trying to influence, says Juusola.
– Israel can easily find itself in a situation where it is fighting a war on many fronts. It has always tried to avoid such a situation.
3. Hezbollah attack from Lebanon to Israel
A three-front war could be ahead of Israel if the situation escalates further with the extremist organization Hezbollah, which holds power in the southern parts of Lebanon.
On Sunday morning, Hezbollah launched rockets and grenades into the northern parts of Israel, to which Israel responded with artillery fire and a drone strike. Israeli tanks have moved on Sunday on the border with Lebanon.
A Lebanese security source tells the Reuters news agency that the Lebanese Armed Forces have also increased their forces in the border area. Peacekeepers from the UN’s UNIFIL mission say they are trying to prevent a larger clash at the border.
In 2006, Israel and Hizbullah last fought a bloody war lasting more than a month.
According to Professor Juusola, it would be difficult for Hezbollah to gain support for an attack in Lebanon, even among its own supporters. Lebanon’s economy has collapsed, and the majority of the people do not want any more problems.
– Of course, if Israel starts a ground operation that turns out to be very bloody and many Palestinians die, there will be pressure on Hezbollah to create a new front, says Juusola.
The situation also has wider geopolitical significance. Hamas and Hezbollah are supported by Iran, which has armed and trained Hamas, and benefits from instability in Israel and its surrounding areas.
Iran is also a close ally of Russia, which is waging a war of aggression in Ukraine.
The US president also foresees wider geopolitical effects in the Middle East Joe Biden. He warned Israel’s enemies, without naming them, to stay out of the conflict and not use the Hamas attack to further their own interests.
Sources: Reuters, AP, AFP