The tense situation in the Middle East threatens to swell into a major war as Israel and Iran respond to each other’s attacks.
The threat of a great war in the Middle East has become closer every day.
Iran carried out a missile attack on Israel on Tuesday, and before this Israel had struck heavily in Lebanon against the targets of the Iran-backed Hezbollah organization. In addition, earlier this week, Israel struck the Syrian capital, Damascus.
Israel has launched a ground operation in southern Lebanon and is hatching a retaliatory strike in response to this week’s attack by Iran. There is no information yet on the scope of the revenge attack or the way it was carried out.
In the background conflict, there has been a decades-long struggle for the status of the Palestinians.
– The situation is like water-fearing dogs at each other’s throats. State wisdom would be really needed there, says the Visiting Leading Expert of the Foreign Policy Institute Olli Ruohomäki in the morning while describing the situation in the Middle East.
According to Ruohomäki, Israel does not seem to have any kind of political strategy regarding how it intends to live with the Palestinians and the rest of its neighborhood.
– Israel has huge armed forces and it will win battles at the tactical level, but it will lose peace, states Ruohomäki.
Ruohomäki, on the other hand, describes the Iranian leadership’s policy as very cynical and it also puts its people in dire straits.
– As for these armed non-state groups such as Hezbollah, Hamas and the Houthis, these are states within states. They will not submit to any kind of democratic process and control, says Ruohomäki.
What kind of revenge cycle is in store between Iran and Israel?
According to Ruohomäki, what is worrying is if Israel attacks Iran’s nuclear development program.
– This is the kind of thing that the President of the United States is talking about Joe Biden has also said not to because it will accelerate the development of Iran’s nuclear weapons technology.
In addition, Ruohomäki reminds that an attack on the energy infrastructure in Iran will cause great distress to ordinary citizens.
– It is a mistake to imagine that it (Israel) will overthrow the Iranian regime from its power. That’s not going to happen. There will certainly be a backlash when Israel retaliates, so Iran will also have to retaliate.
Lieutenant colonel of the Defense Forces Research Institute Juha Mäkelä is on the same lines as Ruohomäki.
– Although Israel has been able to militarily paralyze Hamas’ ability to operate, it is obviously aiming for the same in Lebanon. They have emphasized that this is not a war against Lebanon, but a war against Hezbollah, i.e. with limited goals, says Mäkelä.
He reminds that Iran is one of the three strong in the Middle East region and the balance of power in the entire region revolves between Saudi Arabia, Iran and Israel.
– The state of Iran is a regional power. I can’t believe that the regime (administration) could be changed militarily, says Mäkelä.
Olli Ruohomäki elaborates that when it comes to Lebanon, Hezbollah is a completely different actor than Hamas.
– So this is probably going to happen to Israel, like in 2006, that is, badly. Hezbollah is much more capable and it is also on its own soil and has huge arsenals of weapons.
According to Ruohomäki, Israel cannot administer the region without occupying the entire area of southern Lebanon, and it does not have the ability to do so.