Each day has its own spark, closer to igniting the Israeli-Palestinian fire. At the start of 2023, clashes between Palestinian groups and the Israeli army are daily and attacks are increasingly frequent. On Monday, an Israeli army raid killed five people in a Palestinian camp near Jericho, in the West Bank. On Tuesday, a 17-year-old Palestinian died in a shootout with Israeli soldiers in Nablus. On Wednesday, Israeli special forces intervened near the Tomb of Joseph and shot and wounded two Palestinian teenagers, including one in the head… “Each morning, each evening sees its share of incidents and friction between the Israeli army and the militants Palestinians, notes Israeli researcher Kobi Michael, of the Institute for National Security Studies (INSS) in Tel Aviv. “Each confrontation fuels Palestinian anger, each death creates a new Palestinian national hero.”
The warning from the head of the CIA
William Burns, the head of the CIA, warned in early February of the imminence of a third Intifada, after visiting the West Bank. Kobi Michael, he already speaks of a “low intensity intifada”. “You have to understand the violence of this campaign of terror and how serious the situation is, warns the researcher, who has spent part of his career in Israeli intelligence. In the minds of the young Palestinians who commit these acts, the Intifada against Israel has already started.”
The outbreak of violence comes from the emergence, over the past two years, of new Palestinian armed groups, which are characterized by the youth of their members. On January 28, the teenager who opened fire on Israeli civilians in Jerusalem was only 13 years old. “There is a return to a logic of military confrontation between the Israeli special forces and a radicalized, disenchanted and idle Palestinian youth, belonging to generation Z, points out David Khalfa, co-director of the North Africa Observatory and of the Middle East at the Jean-Jaurès Foundation. This post-Olso generation has as its only horizon the military occupation of the West Bank, a discredited nepotic Palestinian Authority and a total absence of diplomatic perspective with, facing them, the Israeli government the far right in the country’s history.”
Famous Palestinian press writer Nasser Laham describes the ongoing events in the West Bank as “a driverless intifada”. These paramilitary groups openly challenge the Palestinian Authority, whose 87-year-old President Mahmoud Abbas clings to power despite the absence of elections since 2005. “The Palestinians feel they have nothing left to lose and want change the current situation at all costs, laments Kobi Michael. They are disgusted by the Palestinian Authority and by the Palestinian leaders in general. One of the very particular elements of this campaign of terror, of this Intifada, is that the majority of those who take action against Israel are not affiliated with terrorist organizations.”
“On both sides, everything is in place for there to be an explosion”
The Israeli power responds with its usual strategy, with raids against armed groups in the West Bank. With each time, deaths. “There is continuity in the security approach with previous governments, based on a graduated response, but we see an evolution in form with a populist rhetoric used and abused by far-right ministers who constantly practice one-upmanship verbal, explains David Khalfa. The latter are always demanding more punitive measures and bombarding Netanyahu with nationalist slogans to encourage him to increase and radicalize the response, which worries the security services who fear a conflagration. On both sides, all ingredients of an explosion are gathered.” The government has also resumed the demolition of the homes of relatives of terrorists. And he wants to liberalize the carrying of weapons for Israeli citizens.
If every day and every death raise fears of conflagration, the third Intifada is not yet here. The first two, from 1987 to 1993 and then from 2000 to 2005, were characterized by an uprising of Palestinians throughout the territory, with massive strikes and large-scale clashes. “Economic growth in the West Bank stood at 6% in 2022 and more than 100,000 Palestinians are currently working in Israel, underlines David Khalfa. Many families depend on this financial windfall, which leads a significant part of Palestinians to estimate that “it is not in their interest to participate directly in these clashes. But the new armed organizations, in particular the ‘Fosse aux Lions’ and the ‘Nid de guêpes’ which count ten or even a hundred combatants, are very popular, especially on social media.”
Now all eyes are on, worried, towards the end of March and the start of Ramadan. In recent years, religious holidays, both Jewish and Muslim, have been conducive to the outbreak of violence or even war, as in 2021. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has spoken twice with Emmanuel Macron in recent days, once by telephone , then in person in Paris, on February 2. Contrary to his habits, the Israeli leader would have been very prolific on the situation in the West Bank and would have expressed his deep concerns to the Elysee. Another sign, if necessary, of the threat hanging over the region.