Israel may have drawn the wrong conclusions

Palestinian Hamas fired at least a couple of thousand rockets from the Gaza Strip, while Palestinian militants entered Israeli territory. There are reports that paragliders and drones as well as light vehicles such as jeeps and motorcycles were used in the attacks.

That the attack seems to have taken Israel by surprise is seen by observers as a major failure for the Israeli intelligence apparatus.

Flow of reports

Johan Wiktorin, risk analyst and defense debater, explains that Hamas has likely tried to hide its preparations, for example by moving more slowly, hiding among civilians and practicing abroad. But he doesn’t think that’s where Israel’s extensive intelligence has failed.

– When it comes to catching up, the Israelis are terribly good. They must have received a steady flow of reports, one photo after another, interceptions of each other, verbal reports. I also don’t think there have been any problems in the next step – getting an image and processing the information, he says.

Rather, Johan Wiktorin assesses that the Israelis made a flawed analysis of the available information.

Israel’s intelligence work is mainly divided into three organizations: the military intelligence service Aman, the civilian intelligence service Mossad and the security service Shin Bet.

– Shin Bet is responsible for counter-terrorism in Gaza and the West Bank. They are very much involved, says Wiktorin.

– They have probably drawn the wrong conclusions, that Hamas does not have the capacity.

May have acted late

According to Johan Wiktorin, the “innovative” attack methods may have surprised.

– If Hamas appropriated this paragliding method and drones for example or maybe even built a new tunnel that remained undetected. Then they underestimated Hamas.

It may also have been that Israel did not act quickly enough on the intelligence.

Wiktorin says that the great focus on the internal political battle around legal reforms, as well as the fact that there is a Jewish holiday, may have contributed to a possible slowness.

– It could be like on Yom Kippur in 1973, that there were warnings but that you acted far too late.

Facts: Hamas and Gaza

The Gaza Strip is located at the southeastern corner of the Mediterranean Sea, with a short border with Egypt to the south. Otherwise, Gaza is surrounded by Israel.

Israel took possession of Gaza in the context of the 1967 Six-Day War.

In 2006, the Islamist movement Hamas won over the secular al-Fatah in a parliamentary election in Gaza. Hamas wanted to form a broad coalition with Fatah and other parties, but when these refused, Hamas formed its own government and established its own security force in Gaza.

In Gaza, bloody clashes broke out between supporters of Hamas and al-Fatah. Attempts to reach an agreement failed and in 2007 Hamas kicked al-Fatah out of Gaza and took over administration and policing.

Since Hamas took control of the Gaza Strip, Israel has maintained a blockade of the area. Egypt has also treated Gaza restrictively.

Militant Palestinian groups and Israel have fought several devastating wars since then.

al-Fatah continues to rule the Israeli-occupied West Bank.

Source. Country guide/UI/TT

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