Israel launched its ground attack on Gaza over the weekend, Lt. Col. told Juha Mäkelä from the Defense Forces Research Institute and assistant military professor at the National Defense University Juha Kukkola.
Israeli army units penetrated the Gaza Strip starting from the northern part of the area. A clear sign of the start of the ground attack is that the Israeli forces have no longer withdrawn from the Gaza area and are trying to expand their attack gradually, Mäkelä describes.
Israel did not start the ground offensive with a powerful and extensive first strike, but rather by gradually creeping deeper into Gaza.
According to Mäkelä, this is because Gaza is a large population center, and it cannot be attacked in such a way that the terrorist organization Hamas could be affected from long shooting distances.
According to Kukkola, it is likely that Israel aims to isolate Hamas fighters in the northern part of the Gaza Strip, and then go to the built-up areas, which have already been largely bombed.
– Progress will be really slow due to the nature of the area. Infantry must go first, but infantry cannot do without fire support and tank support.
Palestinian sources say that the Israeli armed forces have carried out heavy air and artillery strikes on the northern part of the Gaza Strip on Monday morning. Israel says it hit more than 600 targets within 24 hours.
Israel’s armed forces said on Monday that its forces had killed dozens of Palestinian gunmen in fighting in Gaza last night. The Palestinian terrorist organization Hamas also said it had been fighting heavy battles against Israeli forces in northern Gaza.
According to eyewitnesses, dozens of Israeli tanks have rolled onto the outskirts of Gaza City, reports the news agency AFP.
Spokesman for the Israeli Armed Forces Daniel Hagari again called on Palestinian civilians to move south to a “safer area”.
– We are gradually expanding ground operations and the extent of our forces in the Gaza Strip, Hagari said according to AFP.
Battles in houses and tunnels
There is an urban war ahead, where the battle is fought one block and one house at a time. It is a time-consuming and manpower-consuming battle, says Mäkelä.
– Every occupied house and block must be secured. It means that soldiers have to be left there to make sure that Hamas is not able to take them over again.
According to Mäkelä, the tunnel network in Gaza is one additional dimension to the battlefield.
Israel has trained professional soldiers to conduct tunnel warfare against Hamas.
Israeli soldiers killed several Hamas gunmen as they were coming out of underground tunnels near the Erez border crossing, the Israeli military said on Sunday.
“Israel pursues slicing tactics”
Lieutenant Colonel Mäkelä says that in the early stage of the fighting, it has been noticeable that Israel is trying to destroy Hamas’s key weapon systems, such as anti-tank missiles. After that, it will be able to advance with armor deeper into Gaza.
– Then there are only assault rifle fighters. Eradicating them from tunnels and residential buildings will take time, but Israel has technological superiority in this regard.
Israel is trying to use slicing tactics in its attack, Juha Mäkelä estimates.
In practice, slicing means that Israel aims to divide Gaza into sectors and take them over piece by piece. Then, for example, Hamas anti-tank patrols will not be able to move inside Gaza to support the areas where the fighting is going on.
Palestinian media: Attacks near hospitals
Israeli airstrikes over the weekend hit near the Shifa and al-Quds hospitals in Gaza City, according to the Palestinian media. The Reuters news agency has not been able to independently confirm the information reported by the Palestinian media.
On Sunday, the Israeli authorities ordered the immediate evacuation of al-Quds Hospital, where around 14,000 people have sought shelter.
Evacuating hospitals full of patients is impossible without endangering the lives of patients, say both the aid organization Palestine Red Crescent and the World Health Organization WHO.
Israel accuses Hamas of placing its command centers and other military infrastructure in Gaza hospitals. Hamas has denied Israel’s accusations.
Palestinian officials say around 50,000 people have sought shelter at Shifa Hospital. The claim could not be confirmed by independent sources.
According to MPKK’s Kukkola, the civilians left behind by a ground attack are a big challenge for Israel.
– As far as I understand, the pressure on Israel is so strong at the moment that Israel does not intentionally aim to strike civilian targets or targets with many civilians.
Lieutenant Colonel Juha Mäkelä states that hospitals, mosques and schools are prohibited targets for attacks in the legal rules of war. According to him, however, it is worth remembering that the terrorist organization Hamas has used them as weapons depots and command posts in the past.
According to Mäkelä, the legal rules of war are unambiguous in the sense that if the opposing side misuses these targets, they become legal goals.
– Hamas’s tactic of using civilians as human shields causes the situation that inevitably innocent bystanders become victims in these battles.
Health officials in Hamas-controlled Gaza said on Monday that 8,306 people had died during the war. According to the authorities, 3,457 of them are minors. The figures could not be confirmed by independent sources.
Communication links cut off
Israel’s declared “second phase of the war” has progressed largely hidden from the public eye. Israeli forces have advanced in the dark of night and communication links in Gaza have been cut.
The loss of communication connections has significantly hindered rescue operations for Palestinians wounded in Israeli airstrikes.
Juha Mäkelä says that a normal military operation includes, for example, paralyzing telephone and internet connections.
– We don’t want to give Hamas terrorists the opportunity to operate via the mobile network, and try to move our own reinforcements to the areas where Israel is going.
Mäkelä estimates that Israel tries to operate at night because its soldiers have night vision equipment. Hamas’ ability to operate in the dark is weaker.
Israel’s ability to withstand losses is an open question
In the urban war, the Israeli armed forces will experience crew losses. It is a question mark how big losses Israel will endure.
According to Mäkelä, Israel aims to attack in such a way that it minimizes all possible risks and uses technical and manpower against Hamas.
Israel’s military and political leadership has prepared public opinion for the prospect of losses, says Mäkelä. According to him, time will tell if the Israelis will rise up to oppose the war.
– Currently, the ground operation has the support of the Israeli people and it is seen as justified. Many support the fact that the military capability of Hamas must be completely eliminated.
Mäkelä and Kukkola estimate that the complete capture of Gaza City and the eradication of Hamas from the area will take months. In the worst case, the battles can drag on for a very long time. The political and diplomatic time window may not be enough for Israel if it progresses slowly, states Kukkola.
– The pressure can grow so hard that the only options left are either to stop the attack or to finish it quickly with force. And then there will be losses and civilian casualties.
The UN Security Council is scheduled to receive information on the humanitarian situation in Gaza on Monday. The 15-member council has voted four times in the past two weeks on a draft resolution related to the war in Gaza. Not a single vote has gone through.
– I would believe that Israel will try to advance as far as it can before the possible start of a ceasefire, says Mäkelä.
Sources: AFP, Reuters