“Israel is not yet in the logic of a large-scale war” – L’Express

Massive bombings in southern and eastern Lebanon, hundreds of dead and thousands of people on the roads. Since September 17 and its spectacular operation targeting Hezbollah pagers, the Israeli army has chosen military escalation against the Shiite militia, determined to push its troops and rockets far from its northern border.

The situation is not yet one of full-scale war, however, according to the former head of the IDF’s strategic division, Assaf Orion. Now a reserve brigadier general and researcher at Washington for Near East Policy, he analyzes the changing and explosive situation in Lebanon.

L’Express: In recent days, the confrontation between the Israeli army and Hezbollah seems to have entered a new, much more aggressive phase. Are we facing a total war?

Assaf Orion: No, not yet. For more than eleven months, Hezbollah has been attacking Israel relentlessly and repeating that it will continue to attack until the conflict in Gaza is resolved. For us, the casus belli comes from Hezbollah, they are the ones who decide how things turn out.

Until recently, even as it carried out attacks, Israel remained on the defensive, with Lebanon a secondary theater of operations. In recent weeks, our leaders have decided that our main efforts must be directed to the north of the country, as Defense Minister Yoav Gallant has emphasized as operations in Gaza approach “mission accomplished” status. On September 16, the government added the safe return of displaced communities from northern Israel as a war aim. Hezbollah said, “No, that’s not going to happen,” and that’s when the attacks began: the pagers, the walkie-talkies, the strike on the command of [la force d’élite] Radwan… Then the bombings against hundreds of missile launchers and military equipment placed in residential areas, after the civilian populations were warned.

Israel is moving forward but is not yet in the logic of a large-scale war, as defined in 2015 and 2018 by the Israeli army’s strategy: it would then potentially involve thousands of strikes per day, many times more than in recent days. Even if the escalation seems rapid, the objective apparently remains the submission of Hezbollah, that it accepts our conditions. So we are not yet in a large-scale war but several pieces of the puzzle can move in this direction in the coming days.

How weakened does Hezbollah appear to you after the attacks it has just suffered?

The Israeli offensive is not aimed at inflicting maximum damage on Hezbollah. They have certainly lost a few dozen fighters in targeted strikes and several hundred of its active members in Monday’s bombings. [23 septembre]. But it is an organization that has 50,000 to 100,000 men!

Their main defeat lies on the moral, psychological level and in the disruption of their command. They are unable to keep up with the pace imposed by Israel. But a war is not judged by its start and we must observe the evolution of events.

Has the Israeli army nevertheless gained the upper hand?

From an operational point of view, it is obvious. But we are only at the beginning and we can only draw conclusions at the end of the game. No strategic objective has been publicly defined, other than the return home of the communities of northern Israel and pushing Hezbollah away from the Israeli border. The military objective and the final goal remain unclear at the moment, as does the strategy behind it.

Is it still possible to negotiate between Israel and Hezbollah?

I saw that the UN special envoy to Lebanon said that using military means would not improve the situation for anyone and that diplomacy should be given a chance. Of course, but diplomacy has had its chance since 2006! Resolution 1701 [NDLR : du Conseil de sécurité de l’ONU] makes it very clear that all non-governmental military equipment is prohibited south of the Litani River, yet Lebanon is violating this resolution with Hezbollah. The United Nations has squandered the mandate of UNIFIL [Force intérimaire des Nations unies au Liban] by failing to report the real facts on the ground, which has now posed a crisis of credibility within the UN system and its diplomatic efforts. Now that the flames have been lit, it has suddenly become urgent to give peace a chance… All those who call for avoiding war today should ask themselves what they have been doing for the past eighteen years, when Israel was constantly warning about Hezbollah’s growing military capabilities south of the Litani River.

Since October 8, there has been daily shooting between Hezbollah and Israel, and everyone seems to find the situation normal. What Western country would accept that its territory is attacked every day? Would France agree to evacuate its entire population near a border because a terrorist group decided to fire rockets at it? I don’t think so. On this point, I am also critical of Israel, which waited too long to act and must now decide to escalate.

Behind Hezbollah is the Iranian regime, which finances and sponsors it. What could be Tehran’s reaction in the coming days?

It all depends on whether this war continues in slow motion or if it becomes a full-scale war, which Iran does not want. As long as the Iranians believe that Hezbollah is not in danger of being wiped out, they will be hesitant, since the United States is in the region with another aircraft carrier approaching.

On the other hand, they will increasingly mobilize their proxies: Iraqi militias have already stepped up their attacks, we expect movement with the Houthis in Yemen, perhaps militias in Syria… Iran is already redoubling its efforts to destabilize Jordan and flooding the West Bank with weapons and funding. It is also likely that the Iranian regime will use the chaos to advance its nuclear program, especially since the period of uncertainty before the American elections is favorable to it.

Do you consider the Hezbollah pager explosions to be the greatest success in the history of Israeli intelligence?

This is an operational success, not just an intelligence one. If this is indeed an Israeli operation, it is a great success, although it came too early and outside the context for which it was originally designed.

And what was this context?

The opening of a war, simultaneously with large-scale bombings and possible ground maneuvers. Imagine Hezbollah suffering such a setback, with thousands of wounded, while the Israeli Air Force demonstrates its full power and ground troops deploy in Lebanon. It would be absolutely devastating. But it remains a stunning and overwhelming coup, from which Hezbollah will take time to recover.

Not only has Hezbollah’s command structure been disrupted, but this operation has also shaken their morale, their self-confidence and their belief that their organization can protect them. Hezbollah cultivates a cult of secrecy and security, hiding its arsenal in residential areas, but Israel seems to know all its hiding places and meeting places. The last few days have been a demonstration of Israeli intelligence superiority, to Hezbollah’s complete surprise.

Israel is also sending a message with these operations: This is what happens when you threaten us beyond what is necessary for deterrence. Hezbollah has been building up its military arsenal for years, and the threat has become so great that it has become our priority. Their obsession with destroying us has become our obsession with knowing what they are up to and stopping them.