Almost three years after US-backed forces in Syria defeated IS’s self-proclaimed caliphate, members of the global coalition tasked with destroying the terrorist organization are warning that their job is not getting any easier.
While the number of fighters in key areas of Iraq and Syria has dwindled, coalition members say the reputation and ideology of the group, known by its Arabic acronym ISIS, continues to hold its adherents together and support its growth.
Nowhere is the threat more worrisome than in Africa, coalition officials attending Wednesday’s ministerial meeting in Marrakech, Morocco, said. The coalition’s joint statement described ISIS as an “emerging threat”.
While focusing on repelling ISIS in Africa, the global coalition and especially American officials emphasize that the threat that ISIS continues to pose in Iraq, Syria and Afghanistan should not be overlooked.
Doug Hoyt, the US deputy representative to the coalition, told VOA before the ministerial meeting that ISIS in Iraq is a very serious threat to carry out covert and massive attacks.
“We still see ISIS elements in the junction area between Iraqi Kurdistan and central Iraq and in some border areas in Nineveh,” Hoyt said. “Until the situation in Syria is resolved, I think this will be a problem for Iraq,” the official said.
Intelligence shared with UN counter-terrorism officials by various countries shows that the terrorist organization has between 6,000 and 8,000 fighters spread across Iraq and Syria. A UN report released last February described ISIS as “an established rural insurgency”.
Previous estimates by the US intelligence revealed that ISIS members in Iraq and Syria could be in the range of 8,000 to 16,000.
The latest report by the US Department of Defense Intelligence shows that the terrorist organization operates mainly in the desert in central Syria and maintains what the agency calls a “strategic retreat.”
Other estimates, however, suggest that the IS threat in Syria could escalate again.
At a global coalition meeting, US counter-terrorism officials again raised concerns about ISIS’s daring and complex plot to smuggle up to 4,000 IS prisoners from al-Sina’a prison in the Syrian city of Hasakah last January.
The pro-Kurdish research group Rojava Information Center reported that ISIS sleeper cells carried out 54 attacks in northeastern Syria in April, an increase of 184 percent compared to the previous month.
Concerns also remain about the 10,000 or so ISIS members, including the nearly 2,000 foreign fighters held in prisons run by the US-backed SDF.
For years, the United States has urged other countries to readmit its own national ISIS fighters in Syria. Authorities informed VOA that these efforts are continuing.
Dexter Ingram, Deputy Head of the Office of the Special Envoy for the Global Coalition Against ISIS, at the State Department, said: “We are trying to set an example by accepting individuals who are US citizens back into the country, and also to countries that have question marks or have problems accepting them back. We are trying to help,” he said.
“Many want to change their laws so that these people can face longer sentences if prosecuted,” Ingram said.
ISIS gains strength in Afghanistan
Coalition members also raised growing fears about the resurgence of ISIS in Afghanistan on Wednesday, and in a statement, ISIS’s arm, also known as ISIS-Khorasan Province, was described as a “growing threat to the South and Central Asian region.”
Before the ministerial meeting, Ingram, a US State Department official, told the VOA that everyone is watching this group right now.
Ingram reported that the United States has started to engage with Central Asian partners at the highest level, even if they are still in observer status.
More than a year ago, US defense and counterterrorism officials began warning that ISIS was laying the groundwork for a resurgence in Afghanistan.
Observers in the region told VOA that the group is looking to gain ground in parts of Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan.
Intelligence estimates shared by the UN earlier this year showed that the organization has more than doubled since US forces left Afghanistan last August, reaching more than 4,000 fighters.
On Tuesday, Lieutenant General Scott Berrier, Director of the Department of Defense Intelligence, told members of Congress in Washington that ISIS-Khorasan could regain its ability to launch attacks on targets outside Afghanistan in “probably a year (or) a little longer.”
Berrier warned that the group’s launch of some successful and devastating attacks does not bode well for the future.
ISIS threat grows in Africa
“Our joint assessment of the dangerous escalation of the terrorist threat in Africa revealed the urgency of a specific approach in the coalition’s support to the African continent,” Moroccan Foreign Minister Nasser Burita said after the meeting.
Hosting the ministerial meeting with Morocco, the United States stressed the need to empower African members of the Global Coalition to Fight ISIS with what American officials call a “civilian-focused approach.”
“ISIS and other terrorist organizations often see themselves as alternatives to the state, and it is therefore critical that we work together to increase the capacity of states to provide services and security to the public,” said Victoria Nuland, Undersecretary of State for the US Department of State.
“The United States is committed to working with our partners in West Africa to tackle the challenges that have allowed the organization to thrive. “These challenges include the lack of legitimacy of states, constant violations of rights and food insecurity,” he said.
Other American officials told VOA that the threat of IS in Africa is getting more and more formidable, the number of groups that are finding links in West African countries is increasing and they are often using local troubles to their advantage.
While intelligence data from countries working with the United Nations put the number of fighters affiliated with IS in Nigeria, Niger, Cameroon, Chad, Mali and Mozambique at more than 7,000, some American and Western counterterrorism officials warn that the numbers are still rising. .