Is the importance of penalty kicks in football too big? The radical proposal made in EPN’s MM studio came as a surprise to Markku Kanerva

Nine penalty kicks were awarded in the first 30 matches of the ongoing World Cup.

In the 2018 World Cup, video assistant referee VAR (video assistant referee) was used for the first time. At that time, no fewer than 29 penalty kicks were awarded in 64 matches, i.e. 45 percent of the matches saw a penalty kick.

One for Urheilu’s expert Markku Kanerva among the questions from the audience was: “There are spots all the time and the players are fishing for them all the time. Has VAR changed the game too much?”

In Kanerva’s opinion, VAR’s task is to make it easier to get the right solutions, but penalty kicks are usually still open to interpretation.

– Now we can see that even the slightest contact puts the ball on the spot. This is certainly one area of ​​development in how these situations leading to penalty kicks are actually interpreted. There are a lot of skilled players who know how to get that contact.

The radical and surprising rule idea gained understanding

Sports expert Miika Nuutinen posed the question of how many of the situations that ended in a penalty kick would have resulted in a highly anticipated goal-scoring situation without the whistle.

– It makes you think about whether a comma is the right size of punishment or reward in modern football. If compared to, say, direct free kicks, the effectiveness of which is very low. The rules have also changed to support the defending team, Nuutinen suggested.

After that, Nuutinen addressed the question to Kanerva in the studio and the expert Juho Rantala.

– Is it accepted that commas play a bigger role and decide more games. Should something be done about it? You can no longer pack with VAR. But should the referee line be changed to be more permissive, so that inside the box the players would still dare to defend, Nuutinen asked.

– Or should the rules be touched? I’m not suggesting, but I’m throwing out a thought: what if for those fouls that don’t lead directly to a goal-scoring spot, the game was continued with an indirect free kick?

Kanerva found the proposal interesting. Even if there was room for interpretation in the rule, whether the situation could have resulted in a good scoring position or not, Kanerva pointed out.

– That proposal came out of the blue, but I must say that it is quite interesting.

In the studio, the situation of the 2021 European Championship was also reviewed, when Denmark received a penalty kick against Finland. Paulus Arajuuri slid towards the situation Yussuf Poulsen and hit his knee on his shoe.

– Another thing is whether this should be given a comma now, really. I think absolutely not! Kanerva exclaimed, but then admitted that there was a little contact in the situation.

– If we think about the fact that penalty kicks are so important. The threshold for giving them should be high, Kanerva continued in the studio.

So you support Nuutinen’s proposal?

– Well, in a certain way, yes.

Rantala mixed things up with his own reflection that, on the other hand, an attacking player might be brought down 19 meters from the goal from an obvious through drive, but the situation would only be a free kick. Of course, in these situations, the defending player often gets sent out.

– They say that it’s an idea worth considering anyway, Rantala said.

The expert believes that the rule change would not make defending too much easier

Sports expert Jonne Kunnas said that it would be important to consider the penalty issue.

– Because with VAR, there will be more and more penalty kicks, which would not have happened before. Of course, defenders must be able to defend without fouls and better, but nowadays minimal contacts are found with VAR.

– It would be good to think about solutions so that the situations do not become such a big punishment.

An indirect free kick is certainly a radical and difficult proposal to implement. However, Kunnas does not believe that it would make defending too easy.

– If the solution could be an indirect free kick, it would be really open to interpretation. The more room for interpretation, the more difficult equality would be.

– In the same way, defenders nowadays have to think about whether to break or not at the boundaries of the box. Now that consideration would move inside the box. Of course, it would make it easier for the defense, but I don’t think it would change dramatically.

The Athletic considers penalty kicks to be mathematically unfair

For example According to The Athletic (You will be transferred to another service) the expected goal in penalty kicks is 0.78. So 78 percent of kicks lead to a goal, compared to, for example, two percent of corner kicks.

The Athletic investigated penalties in the Premier League from 2011-22. In half of the attacks for which a penalty kick was awarded, less than six percent of the goals were expected. On average, only 1/20 of the attacks contained more than 19 percent goal expectation.

The story of The Athletic goes so far as to state that “penalty kicks are the worst rule in sports”. It is pointed out in the story that changes have always been made to the rule.

For example, in 1913 the Philadelphia Inquirer magazine proposed a penalty area in the shape of a semi-arc. Bets from this area would have a higher expected goal, and judging penalty kicks for fouls in that area would be “mathematically fairer”.

North American MLS used “penalty drives” where an attacking player launched a drive from 35 yards (32 meters) against the goalkeeper. Their goal expectation in 1996–99 was 45 percent.

Punitive transports have been defended by, among others, a Dutch legend Marco van Basten. He proposed in 2017 that penalty kicks be replaced with carry-ons, where a player starts 25 meters from the goal and has eight seconds to score.

– This is great for the spectators and interesting for the player. With this idea, there are more possibilities: he can deflect, shoot, wait, and the goalkeeper responds – this is more of a typical game situation, van Basten said According to the Goal website (you will switch to another service).