As the war in Ukraine, which has entered its second month, continues to escalate, intelligence analysts at the U.S. Department of Defense and State Department are at a standstill as they analyze the lines of protest documents recently received from Russia. In the document, Russia officially warned that if the US continued to provide weapons to Ukraine, it would face ‘unpredictable consequences’.
What kind of situation does this ‘unpredictable result’ refer to? At the same time, Russia launched a general offensive in eastern Ukraine. CIA Director William Burns said Russian President Vladimir Putin is “very concerned” about the possibility of using tactical nuclear weapons if he finds himself in a desperate situation. The White House in the United States is in an uproar.
Shortly after issuing an order to invade Ukraine on February 24, Russian President Vladimir Putin said, “If any country intervenes in this conflict, it will face tremendous consequences never seen in history.” In fact, it hinted at the possibility of using nuclear weapons. However, it did not specify the United States. But this time it’s different. This is because the Russian embassy in the US has officially delivered a protest document to the State Department warning that it is an ‘unpredictable result’. In addition, the time of delivery is April 12. The next day (April 13), President Biden announced that he would provide Ukraine with an additional $800 million worth of weapons, including 155mm howitzers, armed drones, armored vehicles and ammunition.
The protest document, titled ‘Russia’s Concerns over Supply of Large Volumes of Weapons and Military Equipment to the Ukrainian Regime,’ specifically addressed the issue of multiple rocket launch systems among ‘high-performance weapons’ provided by the US. The document urged the United States to “immediately stop irresponsible military assistance to Ukraine, which could have unpredictable consequences for regional and international security.” White House National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan refuted Russian claims, stressing that the weapons the United States recently provided to Ukraine are defense weapons against Russia’s eastern offensive. By mid-April, the total amount of arms provided to Ukraine by the United States reached $3.2 billion and is expected to continue to rise. Nevertheless, the reason the US does not send US troops to Ukraine is because of the expected escalation of a direct conflict with Russia. President Biden also opposed the dispatch of US troops, saying that the armed conflict between the US and Russia could escalate into World War III and nuclear war.
The protest document sent by Russia did not specify what the term ‘unpredictable outcome’ meant. The Russian embassy in the US also declined to comment on reporters’ questions. However, contrary to the initial expectation that ‘it would end quickly and swiftly’, the war in Ukraine was prolonged. In Putin’s view, the main cause of the protracted war is the continued arms supply to Ukraine from Western countries such as the United States. As a result, there is a lot of speculation that Putin may have made some kind of important decision. This is why there are speculations that Putin could use tactical nuclear weapons to end the war as soon as possible after he clearly witnessed the recent sinking of the Black Sea Fleet flagship, the Moscow, after being attacked by a missile launched by the Ukrainian army.
Andrew Weiss, vice president of the Carnegie International Peace Foundation, a former Russian director of the White House National Security Council (NSC), recalled Putin’s warnings about the use of nuclear weapons in the West immediately after the invasion of Ukraine. It’s a very clear warning,” he told The Washington Post. In particular, he pointed out, “If Russia attacks a transport vehicle that supplies arms to Ukraine from a NATO member state, the conflict could spread to the NATO member border area.”
Concerns over escalating ‘NATO v Russia’ escalation
The United States did not provide any offensive weapons until recently shortly after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. This is because they feared that the offensive weapons provided to Ukraine could escalate the war to ‘NATO versus Russia’. But in mid-April, when President Biden provided Ukraine with 155mm howitzers, switchblade drones, and Mi-17 helicopters, which could be seen as offensive weapons, Russia seems to have decided not to sit still.
According to the New York Times, right after the Russian side delivered the protest document to the US State Department, the Pentagon and intelligence agencies held an internal discussion over the phrase ‘unpredictable outcome’. CIA Director William Burns, speaking at the Georgia Institute of Technology on April 15, warned that “Putin may be tempted to use tactical or low-intensity nuclear weapons out of a desperate desire to achieve something similar to victory in the Ukraine war.” attracted He reiterated that given the devastating blow to Russia’s military until recently, the possibility of using nuclear weapons should not be underestimated if Putin is at stake. The tactical nuclear weapon he mentioned is a weapon that can be launched from a mortar or detonated in the form of a mine on the battlefield, unlike strategic weapons such as an intercontinental ballistic missile equipped with a nuclear warhead. Russia is known to have about 2,000 tactical nuclear weapons. The United States has deployed about 100 tactical nuclear weapons, designated B61, in Europe.
The weapons that President Biden announced on April 13 that he would provide aid to Ukraine are being transported to the Ukrainian border by U.S. transport planes. These weapons are known to be delivered to soldiers inside Ukraine by rail and land. U.S. troops stationed on the Ukrainian border with NATO members are training Ukrainian soldiers to use weapons, including 155mm howitzers, outside Ukrainian territory. He was in charge of not only supporting weapons, but also training how to use them.
Meanwhile, in mid-April, Russia launched a general offensive to completely occupy the eastern Donbas region, a stronghold of pro-Russian separatists. There is no guarantee that Putin, who initially tried to quickly occupy Kiiu, the Ukrainian capital, and withdrew after suffering massive damage, will not attack US and NATO weapons transport vehicles or supply bases if another defeat is expected in eastern Donbas. In that case, there is also an observation that the ‘unpredictable result’ mentioned in the recent protest document by Russia is highly likely to become a reality.
“At the heart of what lies ahead is whether Russia will attack not only weapons transport vehicles in Ukraine’s territory, but also weapons supply routes in Ukraine’s neighboring NATO member states,” George Bibi, who served as the head of Russian analysis at the CIA, told The Washington Post. He predicted that the possibility of attacks on weapons transport vehicles and supply bases within NATO member countries would be ‘significantly increased’, especially in the eastern region, where Russia has launched a general offensive, if the war situation becomes unfavorable due to the blockage of Ukrainian forces armed with US-made weapons. In this case, if the US-led NATO counterattacks, a military clash with Russia is inevitable, and in the worst case, the US is concerned that it could escalate into a nuclear war. In fact, Russian Ambassador to the United States Anatoly Antanov said in an interview with Newsweek recently, “Western countries, including the United States, are pouring weapons and ammunition into Ukraine. Such actions could lead to a direct military clash between the United States and Russia.”
© EPN