Both Ukraine and Russia are strengthening their forces in the south. Russia’s actions can also be a diversion, and it certainly won’t leave Eastern Ukraine alone, the military professor reminds.
18:05•Updated 18:34
Russia’s war of aggression in Ukraine has lasted almost half a year, and there is no quick end to the war in sight, National Defense University military professor, lieutenant colonel Janne Mäkitalo evaluate.
According to Mäkitalo, it now seems that Ukraine is preparing for a large-scale counterattack for the first time. Russia, on the other hand, is trying to grab more territories for itself and at the same time is preparing to defend itself against Ukraine.
We asked the military professor five questions about the current situation in Ukraine.
What has happened in Ukraine recently?
According to Mäkitalo, the third phase of the war has been going on for a couple of weeks. In the first phase, the focus of the war was in Kiev, for example, in the second, it was in the Donbas in the eastern part of the country. Now both Ukraine and Russia have moved their military forces to the southern parts of the country.
Russia has also moved its forces to the south to prepare for possible Ukrainian counterattacks.
It has still kept its troops strong in the east as well and fought there. On Saturday, the Ukrainian army said that it had prevented attempts by Russian troops to advance, among other things, towards the cities of Bah’mut and Avdijivka in eastern Ukraine.
One of the cities that Russia is eyeing in Eastern Ukraine is specifically Avdijivka, located near Donetsk, which was already fought for in 2014. In recent days, Russia has targeted the village of Pisky, whose situation is still unclear. Russia claims to have taken over it completely, while the Ukrainian army says “heavy fighting” continues.
According to Mäkitalo, Pisky is mostly a symbolically significant place, because there were also battles for its control in 2014. However, then the village remained in the hands of the Ukrainians.
Why hasn’t a major counterattack been seen yet?
Military professor Janne Mäkitalo says that since the beginning of the war, he expected counterattacks by Ukrainian armored and mechanized brigades.
Ukraine has managed to take back some areas and keep others, despite Russia’s attempts to take them over. Last week, the explosions at the air base in Crimea, which are believed to have been carried out by the Ukrainian army, attracted attention.
Mäkitalo considers it possible that Ukraine is preparing a large-scale attack all the time.
– If Ukraine is able to launch its larger counterattacks in a favorable time and terrain and with the Russian forces in a bad situation, it might turn the war around, says Mäkitalo.
According to him, throughout the war, Ukraine has carefully guarded against revealing its plans in advance. Even Western intelligence sources do not necessarily make public information if they have observed from their satellite images that Ukraine is grouping its offensive forces.
Now Ukraine already has Western heavy equipment at its disposal. However, a large-scale attack takes a lot of resources, so Ukraine constantly needs more support and equipment from the West.
– Huge amounts of material, ammunition for heavy equipment, rifle equipment, fuels, foodstuffs are needed. This is not a speed sport but an endurance sport, and the mountains of material required are huge. I understand very well that Ukraine has spent time compiling them, says Mäkitalo.
What do Russia and Ukraine want now?
President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelenskyi has stated several times that the war will only be over when Ukraine has taken control of all the territories occupied by Russia – including the Crimean peninsula, which has been occupied since 2014.
Russia’s goal at the moment seems to be to constantly conquer new territories, and especially to take complete possession of the Donetsk region.
However, according to Mäkitalo, it is difficult to assess what kind of territorial conquests Russia will settle for and whether even Donetsk would be enough. Its declared goals have been the “cleansing of the Nazis” in Ukraine, i.e. the so-called denazification, the demilitarization of Ukraine and the protection of Russia from the military threat that Russia claims Western countries pose to Ukraine.
– In order to save face, Russia can consider that the goals set for the war have been achieved when, along with Luhansk, the Donetsk region has also been conquered.
How can the war continue and what should be followed?
According to Mäkitalo, it is now worth keeping an eye on the Kherson and Zaporizhia regions in the southern parts of Ukraine.
For example, something can be inferred from that if Ukraine or Russia are moving equipment intended for crossing the watercourse near the Dnipro River.
It would be a significant victory for Ukraine if it could be pushed across the Russian River. This would make it difficult for the Russian occupation to operate on the Crimean peninsula.
The situation in the area of the Zaporizhia nuclear power plant is also worth monitoring, even though Russia proposed a ceasefire in the area today, Monday. It is important for the Russians to keep the nuclear power plant in their possession and to have the electricity it produces for Crimea’s use.
According to Mäkitalo, there is a real risk that something will happen in the area that will damage the nuclear power plant. It would also cause extensive damage to the troops in the area, both Russian and Ukrainian.
– Not to mention the fallout spreading further. Wars are simply not allowed in and around the nuclear power plant area.
Mäkitalo would also keep a close eye on the east in the Donbas region, even if Russia seems to be currently focusing on strengthening its forces in the south.
– Russian military skills include deception.
What do the next few months look like?
During the late summer and autumn, we can probably see Russian attacks and Ukrainian counterattacks, if only because once the autumn rains start, the defender always has the advantage. Both parties probably want to achieve their goals before then.
– It has been surprising to Russia how deceptively fertile the Ukrainian grain field is. When the stage is full of cannonballs, the cars cannot move on it until the ground freezes.
However, a counterattack by Ukraine, for example, may take a long time. According to Mäkitalo, recapturing Crimea and the Donbas region would require a large and multi-phased operation from Ukraine, which is not a matter of days, weeks or maybe even months.
Otherwise, it is still impossible to predict the duration of the war, says Mäkitalo.
– In the early stages of the war, I compared the war to all the wars fought at the beginning of this millennium and thought it irrational that the war would last a few months longer.
– That assessment went as elegantly as possible.
What thoughts did the story evoke? You can discuss the topic on August 16. until 11 p.m.