Is Emmanuel Macron preparing the dissolution of the National Assembly? The government has already on several occasions engaged its responsibility on the budgetary texts, and the other reforms wanted by the head of state should have difficulty finding majorities in the hemicycle. According to Sunday newspaper, the Élysée would already have a battle plan in mind to go back to the polls. But this option is welcomed with reluctance in the presidential camp.
A leak directed towards the presidential camp
The choice of the Élysée to revive the theme of dissolution through the article of JDD can be explained in several ways. First, a battle of ideas on the subject within the presidential camp.
If there is indeed reluctance, relatives of the Head of State are campaigning for this option: it is moreover the new boss of the Renaissance presidential party, Stéphane Séjourné, who expresses himself in the columns of the JDD. We are there in the very close circle of Emmanuel Macron.
The other explanation, but which may be complementary, is that the Head of State is unhappy with the functioning of his relative majority in the Assembly. The vote of certain amendments by its allies against the opinion of the government has greatly annoyed. And threatening dissolution with uncertain results could be a way of disciplining the presidential camp.
Pressure on the right
But the red rag of the dissolution also targets the opposition, and in priority The Republicans. Senate President Gérard Larcher said again this weekend that the LR party would not refrain from tabling a motion of censure against the government.
However, a motion from the right could reasonably bring together a majority to censure the executive. Brandishing the threat of dissolution is a deterrent, because Les Républicains could do even less well than the 62 deputies saved last June.
But, notes a communist deputy, they could also take advantage of a dissolution to negotiate a government agreement to their advantage, and therefore further weaken the authority of Emmanuel Macron.
Divisions on the left
The possibility of a dissolution divides in any case, on the left. Insubordinate France says it is ready to take up the challenge. This is much less true among its allies: in a survey published by the JDDthe Nupes is down, with 25% of voting intentions.
Hence a certain reluctance: It’s not the right time “Judges a socialist executive, while an environmentalist leader says she wants to focus on current political issues rather than a hypothetical dissolution.
All in any case warn the Unsubmissive against tomorrows likely to become disillusioned. ” LFI is down in the polls, and the party will not be able to count on the dynamics of the presidential election like last time “Warns a PS deputy.
It’s almost riskier for them than for us. Moreover, in the event of a new electoral agreement, we would no doubt be able to demand more candidates than the 70 we had this spring.
The danger of the far right
One thing is certain: early legislative elections can have very volatile results. Turnout is generally lower than in post-presidential elections.
” We know where it starts, but we don’t know how it ends “, continues the same socialist deputy, worried in particular about the risk of strengthening the far right. The National Rally and Reconquest are indeed the only parties in progress in the poll published Sunday in the JDDand in the event of an alliance, they could exceed the 89 seats currently held.
The PS parliamentarian also believes that the presidential camp could be punished by the voters for not having been able to create the conditions for a real discussion with the opposition in the Assembly. And to imagine Emmanuel Macron already totally disavowed and forced to resign in the event of failure of his dissolution.
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