UKRAINE. After five months of war, Ukraine and Russia evoke the idea of an end to the conflict. But the positions of each to put an end to it are very different.
Russia does not relax the pressure on Ukraine. And believes that the latter, alone, put an end to the raging war. In any case, this is what Dimitri Peskov, the spokesperson for Vladimir Putin, suggested on Tuesday, June 28, 2022. For the Kremlin, the conflict will only end if the neighboring country lays down its arms. But capitulation does not seem to be an option for Volodymyr Zelensky, the Ukrainian president. Despite repeated attacks by the Russian army and the loss of control of part of the territory, Ukraine does not intend to surrender.
And this, even if five months after the start of the Russian offensive in the neighboring country, the fighting continues, in a bloody way. Because if the epicenter of the conflict is in eastern Ukraine (read below), “surprise” offensives are being carried out by Russia, like this Monday, June 27 in Kremenchuk, in central Ukraine, more 200km west of the main theater of war. A shopping center was bombed, killing at least 18 people. For its part, Russia defended itself, claiming to have targeted a warehouse of firearms, the explosions having then caused the fire of the shopping center, according to the version coming from the Kremlin. Faced with these attacks, Ukraine does not want to lower its flag. The end of the war does not appear to be on the agenda.
Ukraine-Russia war: the map of the conflict
Undeniably, Russia has gained ground in Ukraine. To the south, she took control of the entire coast along the Sea of Azov and part of the Black Sea. To the east, the border region between the two countries, Vladimir Putin’s army has extended its hold, which already controlled part of it. Ukraine has laid down its arms in Sieverodonetsk, after several weeks of fighting. Russia continues its advance and is now targeting Lysychansk, as well as its surroundings, which Ukrainian soldiers are still trying to defend. Another current Russian target: Kharkiv and its region. In the south of the country, the situation is frozen for the time being and Ukraine is unable to make Russia back down.
Although Kremenchouk, located on the banks of the Dnieper, west of Kharkiv and south of kyiv, was bombarded, most of the fighting took place in the south and east, the rest of the country being, for the most part, , spared, like kyiv (even if the capital was the target of a strike during the weekend, Odessa, Zaporijjia or Dnipro.
While the positions seem almost fixed, what future for the conflict? Can the war between Ukraine and Russia end? Yes, depending on which country launched the offensive. The condition: that its neighbor capitulate, as announced by Dmitry Peskov, spokesman for the Kremlin, on Tuesday June 28: “the Ukrainian side can end [au conflit] during the day. Nationalist units must be ordered to lay down their arms, Ukrainian soldiers must be ordered to lay down their arms and all the conditions set by Russia must be implemented. Then it will all be over in one day.” But it’s hard to imagine Volodymyr Zelensky ordering his troops to lay down their arms.
Especially since, for his part, the Ukrainian president has called on the member countries of the G7 (Germany, Canada, United States, France, Italy, Japan and United Kingdom) to “do their utmost to try to put an end to this war before the end of the year.” Between military logistical support and the strengthening of international sanctions against Russia, Ukraine expects real support from the West to force the Russians to put an end to the conflict.
But international pressure will not be enough. A peace agreement, or at least a ceasefire, must be signed between Ukraine and Russia. However, if negotiations had been conducted during the spring, everything has been stopped since April 22. And each blames the other. It’s hard to imagine the lines moving.
Until the Cold War or the exhaustion of the troops?
“After the sacrifices suffered, the devastation, the atrocities, the human and material losses, Ukraine is not going to make peace just like that. It will be satisfied if necessary with a provisional and precarious ceasefire, but counts given what it has suffered, the country will go very far to recover its sovereignty and territorial integrity”, explains Jean de Gliniasty, research director at IRIS, former French ambassador to Russia, on the Iris website. He adds: “The Russians will do the same, because it will be necessary to justify the launch of the invasion and the special military operation. Russia will not return the Donbass and probably not the Black Sea coast. And given the losses material, international risks and sanctions that no one in Russia thinks will be lifted, the reasoning, at least at this stage of the war, is that lost for lost, we go on.”
The war between Ukraine and Russia should continue, but will get bogged down in the months to come, warned Voldoymyr Zelensky on June 27, speaking of the “harshness of the winter when it is more difficult to fight”, before that, “at the end of the year, we will enter a situation where the positions will be frozen.” For Jean de Gliniasty, “the situation will at best end in a cold war with a line of demarcation that is a little difficult, even hot; at worst, we will continue to witness military operations until one of the two adversaries is exhausted .”
What is the outcome of the war between Ukraine and Russia?
In four months of war, the human toll of the conflict is particularly heavy. According to the United Nations, which is trying to make a daily assessment, the latest assessment dated Sunday June 26, 2022 suggests that 4,731 civilians have been killed since the start of the conflict, including 4401 adults and 330 children. A balance sheet that only includes civilian and not military losses. The UN, however, believes that “the actual figures are considerably higher, as receipt of reports from some locations where intense hostilities took place have been delayed and many reports are still awaiting confirmation.” On the military side, no official figures are communicated. RFI reported the death of 15 to 20,000 Russian soldiers since the beginning of the conflict, while Ukraine would lose a hundred men a day, that is to say ten thousand combatants.