Iran’s president Ebrahim Raisi dead – the expert on what is happening now

Iran’s president and foreign minister have died in a helicopter crash on Sunday, an Iranian official source confirmed to the Reuters news agency.

Now the vice president takes over the leading role temporarily, then a new election is expected to be held.

– It is a huge setback for Ali Khamenei, says Rouzbeh Parsi, Middle East expert at the Foreign Policy Institute.

On Monday morning, Iranian government sources told Reuters that President Ebrahim Raisi and Foreign Minister Hossein Amir Abdollahian have died after a helicopter crash.

According to Rouzbeh Parsi, a Middle East expert at the Foreign Policy Institute, the president’s death will not upset the domestic political system very much – it is described as “sluggish”.

For Iran’s foreign policy, it is a bigger problem that Foreign Minister Hossein Amir Abdollahian has died.

– Amir Abdollahian has been in the Ministry of Foreign Affairs since the end of the 1990s. He was important in the role of extending a hand to the Gulf states and getting better relations with the Arab world, he says.

Those relationships have been important when things were rubbing off elsewhere.

– Many see it as impossible to get a better relationship with the EU, let alone the US. Then surely some of the conservatives would still like to have better relations with Europe, but there are other obstacles now, such as the nuclear technology program and Iran’s support for Russia, says Rouzbeh Parsi.

New election within 50 days

Now the vice president takes over the leading role. Within 50 days, he, the speaker and the head of the judiciary must organize a new election.

The Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei is the final decision maker in the country. He is the one who can declare war and make peace.

– He has very large constitutional powers, says Rouzbeh Parsi.

And for Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, the president’s death is a headache. He has had an important role in bringing out Ebrahim Raisi.

– So it is a big setback for Ali Khamenei. It will affect his attempts to guarantee ideological stability, and increase uncertainty about who will succeed him. He is relatively sick and very old, says Rouzbeh Parsi.

Accident is said to be behind the crash

That both the foreign minister and the president die in an accident may seem unlikely. But it is a basic assumption you must have, according to him.

– Because accidents happen. Then nothing can be ruled out before it is clarified by an accident commission, says Rouzbeh Parsi.

Those who would have an interest in the death of Iran’s president and foreign minister are many, but those who have the capacity for it are fewer.

– If IS had been able to sabotage the helicopter, they would have certainly done it, but I find it difficult to see that they have the opportunity to do so. In that case, we are talking about a monumental security lapse by the Iranian security service.

Those who have both the interest and the capacity to carry out such an attack are Israel and the United States. But Rouzbeh Parsi considers it unlikely that they would be behind this.

– Right now it’s hard to see who would be stupid enough to stick their hand into such a wasp’s nest, he says.