A historic anti-aircraft operation took place in the skies of the Middle East on Saturday evening, in which hundreds of missiles and drones fired by Iran towards Israel were shot down.
According to experts, Iran sent a total of 331 ballistic missiles, cruise missiles and drones. According to preliminary information, less than ten of them made it to Israel.
– And they didn’t cause more damage either, says the lieutenant colonel Juha Mäkelä From the Defense Forces Research Institute.
Former commander of the Finnish Defense Forces, current parliament member of the coalition Jarmo Lindberg finds the high save percentage amazing, even though the attack was big.
Mäkelä is amazed by the success of the defense in a situation where there were a very large number of Iranian missiles and drones in the air at the same time.
– The aim was to saturate Israel’s anti-aircraft systems so that they don’t have time to select all the targets and destroy them. But they had time, i.e. the impregnation failed. Therefore, it can be considered an almost complete success for anti-aircraft systems.
1. Iran warns and shoots its drones and missiles
Iran launched the biggest missile attack in its history towards Israel on Saturday night. The operation lasted five hours.
The attack was received in Iran the true promise of the name Operation. It was intended as revenge, as Israel killed 16 people in a precision attack on April 1 in the embassy building in Damascus, Syria. Among them was a high-ranking commander of Iran’s Revolutionary Guard.
Missiles were fired at Israel from the western part of Iran, Iraq and Yemen, where the Iran-backed Houthi rebels operate.
First, 185 Shahed drones were sent on the trip. Airplanes equipped with propellers would take several hours to travel a thousand kilometers away. Their speed is similar to that of an ordinary small plane, a Cessna, i.e. 100-200 km/h.
Shaheds are the same simple suicide drones that the Russian military has used en masse against Ukraine. Iran’s tactic was to use a large swarm of drones to overwhelm Israel’s air defenses so that more sophisticated weapons could penetrate it, says Lindberg in its X update.
Next, Iran launched 36 Paveh cruise missiles that flew at the speed of an airliner, skimming the surface of the earth and thus avoiding radar surveillance.
Finally, 110 Emad ballistic missiles were fired into the sky. They travel at several times the speed of sound and cover the distance from Iran to Israel in a few minutes.
According to Lindberg, it was surprising that the cooperation and coordination of the various parties was also successful with the countries that Iran used for help.
– When it was estimated how Iran coordinates its own helpers, it was now seen that the coordination was absolutely seamless. The attacks were coordinated from Iran in such a way that at the same time missiles were launched from Iraq, Syria, Lebanon and Yemen.
Lindberg was also surprised by the coalition formed around Israel, which included at least the United States, Britain and France, Jordan, maybe Saudi Arabia as well.
– Their cooperation was also clearly closer and better coordinated than could have been expected.
There was a shared picture of the situation and the radar data had been shared in such a way that the missiles and drones coming from Iran were seen well in advance.
2. Israel and allies at the ready
The Iranian attack did not come as a surprise to Israel. Iran had signaled that an attack was coming. Missile launches were also seen via the US SBIRS surveillance satellites.
– They are able to give advance warnings and based on the flight path, they calculate the likely target areas where the missiles are going, Lindberg describes.
According to Mäkelä, the key to countering Iran’s missile and drone attack over the weekend was the advance knowledge of the attack and the relatively long flight time of the drones and missiles to their destination in Israel.
– The advance warning came hours before, already when the launches were being prepared. That’s how the planes got into the air on time.
The attack was also facilitated by the long flight distance of the missiles and drones used in the attack. Mäkelä compares the situation to Gaza on Israel’s side.
– In the case of rockets fired from Gaza, the decision to intercept must be made in seconds or less than a minute. On the other hand, drones launched especially from Yemen and Iran had a flight time of several hours.
– The fighter jets of the partner countries were very capable of countering both slow-flying drones and cruise missiles.
The speed of a ballistic missile, on the other hand, is something incomprehensible: 7 kilometers per second.
– The ballistic missiles were countered almost one hundred percent with the Israeli Arrow anti-missiles. It is a system intended for high countermeasures and is capable of countermeasures from space.
In Mäkelä’s opinion, the multi-layered nature of Israel’s anti-aircraft system is essential for success.
It includes several systems with different dimensions: Iron Dome, David’s loop and the far-reaching Arrow 2 and 3 systems.
Other countries should also notice the functionality of the multi-layer air defense system, Mäkelä says.
– Iran’s attack showed that such a thing is necessary. And advance warning is also necessary. In the case of the Iranian attack, advance warning was also of paramount importance from the partners.
3. US support is crucial
Israel was supported by the armed forces of the United States, Britain, France and Jordan. US support proved to be decisive in the prevention efforts.
– According to the data, the United States repelled approximately 80 drones and cruise missiles, as well as 8 ballistic missiles, so the United States has played a significant role in this success, Lindberg estimates.
The fight against Shahed aircraft and cruise missiles began as soon as they entered Iraqi airspace. The United States has the Muwaffaq airbase in Jordan, whose F-15 fighters immediately began chasing their targets.
Planes from the US 494th Fighter Squadron were flown to the Middle East from the British Lakenheath base, and planes from the 335th Squadron from North Carolina.
In addition to this, the forces deployed by the United States in the southern part of Syria shot down drones that flew over. The US says its planes have destroyed about 70 Iranian drones.
At least one ballistic missile was destroyed by a Patriot missile from the base that the United States has in Erbil, Iraq.
The USS Carney and USS Arleigh Burke destroyers stationed in the Mediterranean also participated in the anti-missile defense. They have announced that they have destroyed six ballistic missiles.
British Air Force Typhoon fighters stationed at the Akrotiri base in Cyprus also took part in the operation.
France reportedly has a naval vessel in the Red Sea and is believed to have been involved in the response. President Emmanuel Macron also included France has Rafale fighters in Jordanand they also participated in the fight.
In addition, the Jordanian air force says that it has repelled Iranian drones and missiles flying in its airspace.
The attack and its defense cost a lot.
Lindberg estimates that the Iranian attack easily cost the parties a billion euros or more.
– A normal anti-aircraft missile costs about one million euros or one dollar, but the anti-missile version of the Patriot, for example, costs four million dollars each.
When these amounts and the number of missiles are multiplied, according to Lindberg, the final amount will be a billion or more.
Article sources used: The Washington Post., The Intercept, The Guardian, CSIS Missile Defense Project, The New York Times.