In the shadow of the war in Ukraine and the tensions around Taiwan, the future of another international crisis is being decided these days in Tehran. After eighteen months of negotiations, Iran, the European Union, the United States, Russia and China have reached a final text to regulate the Iranian nuclear program, in exchange for the lifting of international sanctions. All that remains now is to sign it, and Tehran is careful not to set a trend.
However, time is running out. In three months, during the mid-term elections, the Americans can swing Congress into the Republican camp, opposed to any agreement with Iran. Since 2018 and the withdrawal decided by Donald Trump, Tehran has been marching towards the atomic bomb with fewer and fewer controls, using new centrifuges and enriched uranium. According to analysts, two years separate Tehran from nuclear weapons.
• Scenario n° 1 – The signing of an agreement, a breath of fresh air for Tehran and world relaxation
“If there is an agreement, it’s win-win: the international community will be able to ensure that Iran does not become a nuclear power in the near future and the Iranians will have access to funds blocked in accounts at the abroad – in South Korea, Iraq or Japan, underlines Farid Vahid, director of the Observatory of North Africa and the Middle East of the Jean-Jaurès Foundation. , which would be a breath of fresh air for the Iranian economy. The exchange rate will be favorable to the Iranian rial, Iran will experience economic growth and above all will be able to resell its oil and gas more easily.”
However, the return to the international agreement and the lifting of sanctions would not be for now. The text will first be submitted to the US Congress, which will have to adopt it within thirty days. Then Iran will have to give guarantees on its cooperation with the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) and welcome, again, its inspectors in its facilities. “Even if the agreement is signed tomorrow, there will be no immediate gold rush towards Iran, warns Ellie Geranmayeh, director of the Middle East program at the European Council on Foreign Relations. for the Iranian economy will not be felt for several months and will not be comparable to the boom of 2015, after the signing of the first nuclear agreement.”
Cooled by the precedent of 2018 and the return of American sanctions, European companies may wait before venturing back into Iran. Similarly, an Iranian nuclear deal will not solve the energy crisis in Europe, as Tehran is not ready to open its oil and gas floodgates to our continent, for both practical and ideological reasons. “Traditionally, Iran exports its oil to Asia, says Farid Vahid. It will be able to continue with more competitive prices, and will above all have access to payments in dollars, which it is sorely lacking today.” This arrival of hydrocarbons on the Asian market should also lower world oil prices, adds the researcher.
Iran’s chief negotiator Ali Bagheri leaves Coburg Palace following Iran nuclear talks on August 4, 2022 in Vienna.
afp.com/Alex HALADA
• Scenario n° 2 – The refusal of an agreement and the danger of war
In recent days, the Tehran press has been surprisingly quiet about the nuclear deal. It is difficult to gauge the state of mind of the Iranians, on the verge of signing six months ago, then convinced of being able to obtain more from the West after the start of the war in Ukraine. New demands from Iran, such as stopping some IAEA investigations, could derail the deal.
If the door to negotiations closes, the risk of military intervention in Iran would be multiplied. “In this doomsday scenario, economic and diplomatic pressure on Iran would grow from all sides, including the Middle East, where opponents of the Islamic Republic, such as Israel or Saudi Arabia, could encourage the Americans to strike Iranian nuclear facilities, believes Riccardo Alcaro, an analyst at the Istituto Affari Internazionali. Israel could also take this initiative alone, which would force the United States to intervene in support.
A conventional war against Iran, however, would not be on the agenda. “Iran is five times the size of France and 33% of mountainous areas, specifies Farid Vahid. A ground intervention remains very unlikely, especially after what happened in Afghanistan.” Israelis or Americans would stick to targeted bombings of Iranian nuclear facilities and other military sites, with the obvious risk of massive retaliation.
At a minimum, the United States would continue its policy of “maximum pressure” instituted by Trump, determined to asphyxiate the Iranian economy. In recent months, soaring food and energy prices have sparked massive protests in Iran, suppressed by law enforcement. “The refusal of an agreement on the nuclear program would be above all a disaster for the Iranian people, not so much for the regime, points out Farid Vahid. Iran would become even more aggressive in the region and would come even closer to the China and Russia. Surely the Iranians would step up their nuclear activities and could soon have the uranium needed for an atomic weapon.”
Former US President Donald Trump at a rally of conservatives in Orlando, Florida on February 26, 2022
afp.com/CHANDAN KHANNA
• Scenario n° 3 – A provisional agreement, a region still under high tension
What little trust there was between Washington and Tehran was destroyed in 2018, when Donald Trump unilaterally decided to withdraw his country from the nuclear agreement. Humiliated by the U.S. reversal, Rouhani’s conservative government had been mocked internally for its naivety.
For the past year, it has been Raisi’s ultra-conservatives who have taken power in Tehran. Their main fear remains to suffer the same affront as their predecessors and they know perfectly well that in the United States, the Republicans would cancel any agreement in the event of a change of majority. “Iranian leaders are watching US policy very closely and the possibility of a big slap in the face for the Democrats in the midterm elections in November, insists Ellie Geranmayeh. This would strengthen the argument not to rush and to not give up the nuclear program in exchange for a deal that could be very short-lived.”
An agreement signed, then again canceled by the Americans, would end up burying any hope of diplomacy between Iran and the West. In the meantime, the Iranian regime would take advantage of the economic opening to strengthen itself. “The richer the Iranians, the more money there will be for Tehran’s military budget and for its fighting allies, such as Hezbollah in Lebanon, judge Farid Vahid. What really worries Israel is not so much the enrichment of Iranian uranium than the enrichment of Iran and its growing influence in the Middle East.”
With this in mind, Tehran has resumed dialogue with its Arab rivals in the region in recent weeks, notably the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia. Failing to hope for an appeasement with the international powers, Iran could start by calming things down with its neighbours.