“Iran wants to expel the United States from the Middle East” – L’Express

After the death of three American soldiers, killed in a drone attack on a military base in Jordan (very close to the Syrian border), Joe Biden accuses the militias supported by Iran who have been increasing strikes against American forces for months : more than 150 since the October 7 massacre in Israel by Hamas. The deaths of American soldiers constitute a spectacular escalation. Sunday January 28, in the evening, Joe Biden gathered his cabinet and attributed the attack to groups supported by Iran. “We had a tough day last night in the Middle East,” he said. “And we will react.” But what will the United States’ response be? To know this, we must first understand the respective motivations of the United States and Iran in the region.

The United States has been interested in the Middle East for a long time. They have been more or less actively deployed there since Operation Desert Storm (1991), the objective of which was to prevent Iraq from attacking its neighbors to take control of the region’s oil. Iraq is no longer the threat it once was, but is now part of Iran’s sphere of influence. More recently, Washington has focused on local movements that could destabilize the region. In summary, the United States’ position in the Middle East has been the same since the 1950s: it is about maintaining the flow of oil and minimizing the level of violence by blocking countries and movements deemed hostile to American interests. . American and allied forces are therefore dispersed throughout the region.

Much of Iran’s recent activity runs counter to this position. Nearly two weeks ago, Iran fired missiles at targets in northwest Syria, Iraqi Kurdistan and southwest Pakistan, apparently in response to the January 3 terrorist attack in the city ​​of Kerman (southern Iran) during the commemoration of the fourth anniversary of the death of General Qassem Soleimani (eliminated by the Americans under the presidency of Donald Trump). Tehran also supports Yemen’s Houthi rebels, who use Iranian-supplied weapons and intelligence to attack ships in the Red Sea and nearby shipping lanes. For several weeks, the United States and some of its allies have been waging a naval battle against the Houthis.

The United States’ goal is to ensure that its allies are not overthrown or destabilized. Conversely, Iran’s objective is to undermine the American position and establish itself as the dominant regional force, which requires the withdrawal of the United States. For Tehran, it is not enough for the Americans to withdraw from the region; this withdrawal must also be seen as an Iranian victory. Moreover, Tehran wants to be seen as the leader of the fight against Israel through its regional “subsidiaries”, mainly Shiites. This would demonstrate the weakness of Sunni actors.

If the United States were ousted, Iran would be able to impose its power on the Suez Canal, and even beyond. But if Iran is broken, it will be the United States that will dominate the region. The Iranian army is obviously much weaker. But Tehran seems determined to strike the United States with the means at its disposal. This could be enough to make the Americans leave, the Iranians calculate. Of course, the stakes are greater for the latter: the United States will continue to exist even if it loses the battle in the Middle East; the same is not true for the theocratic regime in Tehran.

If the United States wants to show that it is ready to fight – and win – it must attack important Iranian targets. Iran will have to respond in the same way. If it occurs, the conflict will mobilize missiles and American air force, in order to minimize human losses on the American side. Iran will use ground forces as well as its drones. The United States will try to destroy drone factories and storage warehouses. Tehran will attempt to wage a short but very intense campaign to discourage US allies from joining the fray.

If the United States must engage in a high-intensity war against Iran, it will be less able to provide Ukraine with the support it needs. We must therefore be attentive to Russia’s play in the region. Because Putin knows very well that the dispersal of American forces in the Middle East would mechanically increase the effectiveness of his army in Ukraine.