The growing dissatisfaction of Iraqis may cause Iran to increase its violence in Iraq, the researcher fears.
Iraq is currently undergoing a fierce power struggle between nationalist forces and supporters of Iran. In the capital, Baghdad, the nationalist leader, Muqtada al-Sadr supporters occupied the parliament building over the weekend, which they have since held.
Outside the parliament, supporters of Iran, which include members of Iran-backed paramilitary forces, hold a demonstration. The police have tried to contain the protesters with concrete fences and water cannons.
Iraq’s latest internal political chaos began with the elections held last October, in which pro-Iranians lost their majority. Since then, the country has not had a government, because the largest parties have not been able to reach an agreement on a new government. At the same time, Iran has vigorously tried to prevent the emergence of a government unfavorable to it.
Muqtada al-Sadr is a powerful figure in Iraqi politics, whose Shia League for Change party led by him became the largest party in the autumn 2021 elections with 73 seats.
There are 329 seats in the Iraqi parliament. Al-Sadr is fiercely opposed to Iran’s supremacy in Iraq and tries to present himself as an alternative that promotes Iraq’s interests.
Iranian-backed parties immediately began blocking al-Sadr’s plans to form a nationalist government that would exclude them. Al-Sadr still managed to assemble a government front with a parliamentary majority behind him, 168 seats.
However, Iran immediately succeeded in freezing the activities of the Iraqi parliament. Iraq’s highest administrative judicial body has terminated its pro-Iranian chairman by Faiq Zaidan with the leadership that in the future a two-thirds majority of the parliament is needed to elect the country’s president, whereas previously a simple majority was sufficient.
Parliament’s activities were paralyzed by the decision and the formation of a government was prevented.
Obstructing a bribery investigation, missile strikes
The judicial body headed by Faiq Zaidan has recently raised emotions in Iraq. In March, the body was abolished by the prime minister Mustafa Kadhim set up by a committee to investigate bribery and other serious crimes. Political corruption is one of the biggest causes of dissatisfaction among Iraqis.
Iran has also targeted Iraq’s largest Kurdish party, the Democratic Party (KDP).
On March 13, the Iranian National Guard used 12 missiles to destroy a villa near the city of Erbil that belonged to a businessman rich in oil and gas Baz Karin for Barazanj. He has close connections with the KDP party.
The KDP did not budge from its political line, so missile and rocket attacks continued against the gas installations of the KAR company owned by Barazanji in May and June.
What does Al-Sadr’s surprise move mean?
Iraq’s eight-month-long political stalemate took a turn in mid-July when Muqtada al-Sadr withdrew all 73 of his MPs from parliament. In Iraq, we are now wondering what he is aiming for with this.
Al-Sadr is known as a politician who makes impulsive and rash decisions, says a researcher at the Foreign Policy Institute Mariette Hägglund.
Hägglund estimates that al-Sadr’s purpose is to show the other parties that the country cannot get a government without him and at the same time demonstrate his own dominant position. At the same time, he encourages his supporters to protest. Al-Sadr is able to get his supporters to the streets in the same way as the pro-Iranians.
After the MPs of Al-Sadr’s party left the parliament, the groups supporting Iran have gained more strength there, but they still do not have half of the seats in the parliament. So the stalemate continues.
What does Iran want?
According to Mariette Hägglund, Iran wants to keep its neighboring country Iraq under control and within its sphere of influence. However, Iran does not want to overwhelm Iraq, as there are security threats in the collapsed state, as the rise of ISIS showed.
In the 1980s, the countries fought a bloody war. Iran wants to prevent a strong neighboring country from emerging as its challenger. At the same time, Iraq is an important part of the territory more or less controlled by Iran, which leads from Iraq through Syria to Lebanon and the Mediterranean Sea.
In the Iraqi elections, it was seen that Iran’s popularity was declining. According to Hägglund, this has been a gradual trend in recent years. More and more people in Iraq are getting tired of Iran’s supremacy and aggression.
– However, the change is not fast, Hägglund states.
According to the researcher, Iran’s policy in Iraq runs on two tracks. On the other hand, Iran wants to achieve a genuine political victory and a majority of its own supporters in the Iraqi parliament. When this always seems more difficult, extra-parliamentary means are introduced, which in any case preserve the administrative power.
These means are indeed drastic. Critics of Iran have been murdered en masse, as well as human rights activists and anti-Iran protesters.
– The lack of political power is compensated with blatant attacks, says Mariette Hägglund.