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Tensions between Iran and Israel are nearing breaking point.
According to intelligence, Iran will attack soon. Via the Quds branch of arms, they conduct a proxy war.
– It is a key player who orchestrates the war against Israel, says Lieutenant Colonel Anders Ekholm.
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US intelligence sources have been clear. An Iranian attack on Israel is expected shortly. The possible attack should be seen as revenge for the generals who were killed in an Israeli air raid on Damascus earlier in April.
The officers in question were high-ranking within the Iranian Revolutionary Guard’s armed wing, the Quds – a force primarily responsible for the Guard’s operations abroad
– Quds can be described as a shady intermediary that “defends” Iran by supporting allied, militant groups in the region. A player that Israel must constantly keep an eye on, says Anders Ekholm, lieutenant colonel at the Norwegian Defense Academy.
And their role is important in terms of Iran’s warfare. It is through them, among other things, that Iran controls, assists and supplies Hezbollah, among other things.
– Iran can be seen as an octopus in the region. Iran itself is the head and the Revolutionary Guard with its Quds Force controls the “tentacles”. It is a kind of elite force that has foreign countries as its game plan. That force is seen as a key player orchestrating the war against Israel, says Anders Ekholm.
“Israel has been clear”
Quds is Iran’s extended arm that controls their proxy warinfocloseproxy warA proxy war is characterized by two actors who are in an indirect war with each other on the territory of a third state. Among other things, Hezbollah’s attacks from southern Lebanon and Syria. So warfare can be conducted without direct confrontation.
It is therefore the branch of arms to which the now dead generals belonged. And their death Iran wants to avenge.
At the same time, Iran would not dare a direct confrontation with Israel. Because the retaliation had been too strong, explains Anders Ekholm.
– Israel has been quite clear – “if you hit me once, I will hit you an incredible number of times more”. When you can also back it up in actions, it works as a deterrent.
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full screen Lieutenant Colonel Anders Ekholm describes Quds as a key player orchestrating the war against Israel. Photo: Aftonbladet Tv
“Will not go unnoticed”
He sees it as unlikely that Iran would attack Israel with robots and that a two-front war would develop.
– Iran knows that if they do that, they will get a response against Iranian territory. And they lack the effective protection against high-speed ballistic missiles that Israel has.
At the same time, he believes that Iran is afraid of its “tentacles” and will not dare to engage Hezbollah fully.
– It’s a card they invested a lot in that can only be played once
But something will happen, believes Anders Ekholm.
And earlier today, an Israeli-owned ship was attacked in the Strait of Hormuz between Iran and the Arabian Peninsula. An act that Iran took upon itself – something that can be seen as aggression.
– Now if Iran has taken responsibility for this, it will not go unnoticed, there will be some kind of response, says Anders Ekholm.
– “If you provoke us, you know what we can do”, Israel reasons, he says.
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full screen The armed group Quds is said to be waging a proxy war. Photo: Wikipedia