Ebrahim Raïssi could have a smile when he boarded his plane for New York this Monday, September 18. The Iranian president, nicknamed “the butcher of Tehran” for his pronounced taste for brutal repression, passed the fateful date of September 16, the first anniversary of the murder of Mahsa Amini, without a notable uprising among his population; he can go to the United Nations General Assembly like any head of state; and the American “Great Satan” freed five Iranian detainees and above all six billion dollars frozen for years in South Korea…
These Korean billions, owed to Tehran for the purchase of Iranian oil, had been blocked since 2019, when the Trump administration decided to heavily sanction any transfer of money to Iran. Strangled economically, with record inflation for eighteen months and forced to reduce energy subsidies, the regime welcomes these six billion dollars with fanfare. In theory, they will be blocked on an account in Qatar and can only be used for humanitarian operations, but several Iranian officials have already warned that they will do what they want with this money…
The risk that these arrests of Westerners will increase
On the other hand, Washington assures that this operation constitutes a draw, with the release of five American prisoners, sometimes detained for years in Evin prison in Tehran. “Unfortunately, the Iranian regime can only see the success of its hostage diplomacy,” says Kasra Aarabi, director of the Iran research program at the Tony Blair Institute. “All it has to do is put Americans in prison and it will receive billions of dollars in exchange… These hostage-takings are working because the West has found no adequate response for the moment. I fear that this kind of behavior will only encourage the arrests of Westerners and binationals in Iran.”
Of course, prisoner releases can only be good news for their families and loved ones in the West. In Iranian prisons, particularly Evin, torture and humiliation are common for Iranians and foreigners alike. But these releases only constitute short-term solutions, each time for the benefit of the Islamic Republic.
At least four French people still detained in Iran
The Americans are far from being the only ones to give in to the Iranian regime on this ground. Last May, Belgium obtained the release of a Belgian humanitarian worker by releasing an Iranian “diplomat” sentenced to twenty years in prison for having prepared an attack in France. “Iran had promised that this man would face justice by returning to Tehran, but he was welcomed as a hero, underlines Kasra Aarabi. It was a huge victory for the Revolutionary Guards: they imprisoned this Belgian humanitarian just after the conviction handed down by the courts in Belgium for terrorism… This should alarm all Westerners!”
To date, at least four French people remain detained in Iran. French diplomacy describes them as “state hostages”.