International Space Station: Russia leaves before other partners

During a televised meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin, Yury Borisov, the new director of Roscosmos appointed in replacement of Dmitry Rogozin, spoke about the immediate future of the Russian space program. Several topics were discussed including Russia’s participation in the International Space Station program.

Unsurprisingly, he acted on the decision taken by his predecessor to leave the ISS after 2024, which in itself is not surprising. Indeed, all ISS partners have planned to leave the program after 2024 as the ISS will be desorbed in January 2031. However, Russia will jump ship a bit earlier than the others, which shouldn’t be a problem. Indeed, what is perceived as a gesture of appeasement; Yury Borisov clarified to Vladimir Putin that ” of course we [la Russie, ndlr] will fulfill all our obligations towards our partners, but the decision to leave this station after 2024 has been taken “. In other words, the Russian withdrawal from the program will be done in good intelligence with the other partners, without haste and without endangering the viability of the orbital complex and its occupants. It should be noted that neither NASA, ESA nor CSA have been officially notified of this Russian withdrawal.

The difficult bet of an independent Russian station

Yury Borisov also indicated that Russia was planning to set up an orbital station by 2024, describing this project as ” space program priority “. He acknowledged that, as a result of Western sanctions against Russia, the space industry was in a ” hard situation “.

The idea of ​​an independent Russian space station is not new. It has even been mentioned several times in recent years. Among the options considered is the now abandoned one of a small orbital complex that would reuse some or all of the modules from the Russian segment of the ISS. This project to separate all of the Russian part of the ISS or only part of it was in any case difficult to achieve and an unprecedented technological headache.

The latest project to date is that of the construction of a new station. baptized Ross (Russian Orbital Space Station), this station will not be permanently occupied. Made up of at least four modules with docking ports and a space exit lock, it will be installed in a different orbit from that of the ISS with an inclination of 97° instead of 51.6°. An inclination which will allow the total coverage of the Russian territory against only 20% by the ISS. Before the conflict with Ukraine, Russia planned the launch of the first module in 2028 and commissioning in the early 2030s.

The state of the Russian space sector and the international sanctionseconomic and financial which prevent Russia from buying certain components make it very difficult to achieve it within the timeframe envisaged by Moscow.

Space station: Russia could decide to suspend its participation in the program

Article of Remy Decourt published on 04/04/2022

A new series of tweets posted by Dmitry Rogozin, the director of Roscosmos, suggests that Russia may decide to suspend its participation in the International Space Station program. The refusal of the international community to lift the sanctions against Russia explains this decision.

Will the space relations between the historical partners of Roscosmos and Russia reach a point of no return? In a series of tweets published on April 2, Dmitry Rogozin, the director of Roscosmos, once again attacked the partners of the Space Station program, whom he blames for the sanctions imposed on Russia following the invasion of Ukraine.

The ” return to normal ties between the partners of the International Space Station and other cooperation projects will only be possible once all Western sanctions against Moscow are lifted “, did he declare. Aware that there is very little chance of this happening in the near future, Rogozin specified that he would communicate to the Russian government his proposals with a view to ” the cessation of cooperation on the ISS with the space agencies of the United States, Canada, the European Union and Japan “.

A separation of extreme complexity

However, he did not specify how the end of this cooperation will materialize or whether it will be done in stages. Clarification that, while it is physically impossible — or rather extremely complex — to separate the Russian segment from the rest of the orbital complex, the two segments cannot operate without each other in the current configuration of the station.

If Vladimir Putin decides to suspend Russian participation in the ISS program until the sanctions are lifted, it is a safe bet that the United States could decide, in consultation with the other partners, to think about stopping the operation of the ISS well before the planned date and therefore not to wait until January 2031 to deorbit the Station.

That said, Russia might think twice about exiting the program. By moving away and cutting ties with its historical partners, it could lose the little that remains of its status as a “space power”. A status that she is not about to regain.