What to expect in 2023? Covid, for starters, will always be with us, as all eyes are currently on China where the number of contagious people has exploded since the end of the government’s zero covid strategy in early December, causing concern in the international community. . The global economy will most likely remain disrupted by the consequences of the war in Ukraine. Energy crisis, food, debt and inflation should thus always be at the rendezvous.
This very uncertain context, as well as the multiplication of climatic disasters this year (heat waves, droughts and fires in Europe, floods in Pakistan, devastating hurricane in Cuba and Florida, etc.), could also accelerate the awareness of leaders vis-à-vis climate change, with the COP28 in Dubai in late 2023 in sight. Not to mention the multiple elections, the outcomes of which could change the geopolitical situation in Turkey, Argentina or Spain.
- War in Ukraine: what horizon for the conflict?
While a Ukrainian victory seemed unlikely during Russia’s invasion of the country in February, the situation on the front seems to have tipped in favor of kyiv’s forces at the end of 2022. Over the past six months, Ukrainians reconquered part of the territories invaded at the beginning of the war. And despite the heavy human and material losses suffered, the morale of the troops seems to be holding up. The latter can count on Europe, and especially the United States, which provides them with ammunition and strategic weapons and which will continue on this path in 2023.
Vladimir Putin’s army is stalling and has suffered multiple defeats, as in Kherson in early November, despite the support of the paramilitary group Wagner. The Kremlin, which continues to bombard several Ukrainian regions, has lost more than half of its armored vehicles and has no modern weapon systems in reserve. These glaring shortcomings in the conduct of operations, logistics and armament could play a role in the continuation of the conflict.
- Coronation of King Charles III in the United Kingdom
Since the death of Queen Elizabeth II on September 8, a new monarch has appeared on the British throne. On May 6, 2023, Charles III, the eco-friendly king, will be crowned in front of cameras around the world in London. The ceremony will take place at Westminster Abbey and will be led by the Archbishop of Canterbury, as has been the case since 1066. King Charles will have many challenges to face in the coming months. The disappearance of the queen, a symbol of unity in a fractured country, could indeed further weaken the cohesion of the British nations. In addition, Prince Harry and his wife Meghan have made new embarrassing claims for the crown in Harry and Meghantheir documentary series unveiled a few weeks ago on the Netflix platform.
- Turkey, Spain, Argentina… Multiple elections to come
The 2023 election year will mark a turning point for Turkey by putting into practice the transition to a regime of concentration of power in the hands of the president, adopted in 2017. The presidential election, which is to be held on June 18, at the same time than the legislative elections, will therefore see the President of the Republic become head of government and have the last word in Parliament. For the first time since he came to power in 2002, Recep Tayyip Erdogan could be pushed out, in particular because of the dissatisfaction of the Turks with inflation that exceeds 80% over one year.
Same observation in Argentina where the candidates for the general elections, which will be held on October 29, will have to be able to provide answers to the galloping inflation that the country is experiencing (more than 80% during the year 2022). The political landscape was turned upside down by the conviction in December of the former president to six years in prison and ineligibility for life. Cristina Kirchner has been found guilty of corruption and fraud. She has announced that she does not want to compete next October, which could leave room for the outgoing, more centrist president, Alberto Fernandez.
In Spain, the political climate is already very tense between the socialist left of Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez and the People’s Party, a conservative formation led by Alberto Nuñez Feijoo. The two parties, neck and neck in the polls, will face off in the legislative elections on December 10, 2023.
- 2023, a busy year for the fight against climate change
On the climate side, the news is as busy in 2023 as in 2022, a year which ends on some positive notes. At COP15, the world conference on biodiversity in Montreal on December 19, countries succeeded in adopting a new global framework aimed at halting the collapse of life by 2030. A few weeks earlier, COP27 for climate gave birth in Egypt to an agreement to create a fund for the irreversible damage caused by global warming. The countries have also started negotiations to develop a legally binding international treaty to end plastic pollution.
At the same time, the European Union (EU) won a series of agreements to accelerate its reductions in greenhouse gas emissions: the reform of its carbon market, the introduction of a carbon tax at the borders or even the end of the sale of new thermal vehicles in 2035. On the other side of the Atlantic, the United States succeeded in passing their Inflation Reduction Act, a colossal investment plan (approximately 350 billion euros) in the transition low carbon.
On November 20, Emmanuel Macron said he wanted to organize a summit in Paris in June 2023 to put in place “a new financial pact” with vulnerable countries. Before COP28 in the United Arab Emirates, which will be the occasion for the first assessment of the countries’ climate commitments, the Secretary General of the United Nations, Antonio Guterres, also announced the holding of a climate ambition summit in September.
- Sport: world handball, football and rugby
In sport, 2023 will start with the World Handball Championships in Poland and Sweden. For nearly three weeks, Nikola Karabatic’s teammates will try to win the supreme title for the seventh time. It will then be the turn of Corinne Deacon’s players, who will travel to Australia and New Zealand in August for the Women’s World Cup. The latter will try to do better than four years ago, in France, where they failed at the gates of the last four.
Finally, in September and until the end of October, France will live to the rhythm of ovality. France will indeed host the Rugby World Cup 2023, which will be contested between Saint-Denis, Lyon, Lille and Marseille. The kick-off will be given on September 8 by an enticing France-New Zealand, at the Stade de France.