Tjasiv Jar is just one mile west of Bachmut and has been shelled for more than a year, attacks that have intensified recently.
– There were earlier moments when it was quiet in the city, but not anymore. There is constant fire, Sergiy Chaus, head of the local Ukrainian military administration, told AFP recently.
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The small towns between the cities have gradually fallen into the hands of the Russians. During the days, the Russians claimed to have reached the outskirts of Tjasiv Yar, which was rejected by the Ukrainians. However, they have admitted that the Russians are trying to break through to the city and describe the situation as “tense”.
Information on Russian offensive plans
President Volodymyr Zelenskyy recently claimed that Russia plans to launch a major offensive in early summer. But this week a NATO source stated for Ukrainian Pravda that the Russians have neither manpower nor equipment for an offensive in the near future.
Joakim Paasikivi makes the same assessment, but does not rule out that Russia is still trying to conquer Tjasiv Jar.
– There have previously been reports of Russian mobilizations and offensives against Kupjansk, Kreminna and other places that have stalled or not materialized. I think that is the case here as well. It has taken the Russians a year to walk a mile from Bachmut to Tjasiv Jar.
Paasikivi: Only seen local offensives
At the same time, there has been speculation that the big city of Kharkiv could once again be the subject of a Russian offensive. But for that a very large logistical operation would be required with large numbers of soldiers, according to Joakim Paasikivi.
– If you want to take Kharkiv, a completely different effort is required than what we have seen since mid-2022, he says.
Since the turn of the year, the city has been exposed to extensive bombings that partially knocked out its electricity supply.
– They are trying to lay the city in ruins with aerial bombings and create a situation where it is impossible to live.