Intelligence source Yelle: Russian ground forces bases near Finland almost empty | Russian invasion

Russia scares NATO countries in the third world war, but at least near Finland, it does not seem to be preparing for war.

The garrisons and military bases of the Russian land forces near the Finnish border are still almost empty, even though Russia is stated that he would confirm troops.

– On average, 80 percent of the equipment and soldiers have been transferred to the war in Ukraine, says a high-ranking Finnish military intelligence source to .

does not disclose the source’s identity because of this official position.

According to the intelligence source, Russian bases in other parts of Russia have also suffered an equally heavy loss. Only in the Moscow region, the war of aggression against Ukraine has not taxed the crew and armament as much.

In this article, the changes in the bases in the vicinity of Russia are evaluated based on both intelligence information and recent satellite images.

They show that in terms of land forces, Russia has sent a large part of its usable armament to its war of aggression.

found changes in these bases.

The war of aggression against Ukraine has taxed the Russian ground forces the most. Air Force, Air Defense Forces and Navy have better manning.

– We have mostly followed the army brigades. The anti-aircraft equipment around St. Petersburg is still relatively strong, says a Finnish intelligence source.

According to the source, there is some variation in the strength of the bases. In some garrisons there are more than a fifth of soldiers left, in others less. In addition, the amounts vary from season to season.

– Sometimes there are new training batches, which means the number of personnel varies depending on the training situation. Equipment also comes and goes.

There are only trainers of conscripts left, while all contract soldiers have had to do real work, the source says.

Norway is on the same lines as Finland’s military intelligence.

The country’s intelligence service has estimated that the number of ground forces has collapsed by 80 percent. In the annual report however, the stated figure only applies to the ground forces of Russia’s northern region on the Kola Peninsula.

The intelligence service estimates that after the end of the war in Ukraine, it will take Russia 3-5 years to restore the combat capability of its armed forces.

In addition to that, the reduction of Russian troops in the southern part of Finland and the anti-Baltic areas has been evaluated Foreign Policy magazine in the early stages of the war. At the time, anonymous sources estimated that the Russian ground forces in the region had been reduced by 80 percent.

The disappearance of the troops on the Ukrainian war front is only partially visible in the satellite images.

has acquired recent satellite images of all the Russian positions and garrisons in the vicinity that are significant for Finland, which were mainly taken during May.

The biggest single change was found at the Petroskoi equipment depot, where a new equipment hall was erected in May.

also had a much more accurate new satellite image in use, but did not get permission to publish it.

The equipment hall in Petroskoi could accommodate, for example, about 50 armored vehicles if driven closely together.

– The halls will probably be used for refurbishing usable material. The depot’s main task is to send as much combat equipment as possible to the front, says military expert, major evp. Marko Eklund.

Eklund, who has studied the Russian armed forces for a long time, has become familiar with satellite images in his work as a background reporter for .

There is plenty to repair, as a large part of the armored vehicles and cannons of the Petroskoi equipment depot have been stored at the mercy of the weather for decades.

Based on satellite images, the Petroskoi depot has one new area that has been emptied during the past winter.

Based on older photos, at least MT-LB armored personnel carriers have been stored there.

According to Eklund, they are used, for example, as cannon pullers and infantry fighting vehicles.

See how the storage area was emptied in the series of pictures below.

An intelligence source tells that all the first-line equipment has already been taken to war. Old equipment has also been put into use by refurbishing.

– According to our yardstick, it’s pretty bad equipment, but according to the Russian yardstick, it can still be OK, an intelligence source tells .

Even if part of the equipment is rusted, it doesn’t matter either, because it’s not sensitive high-tech.

In Suoju, north of Petroskoi, there is another separate area that has not been presented to the public in Finland.

Even before the war of aggression, there were a couple of hundred armored vehicles in the sky as well as artillery, pioneer equipment and trucks. There are also six large halls in the area, which can accommodate at least the same amount of equipment.

As you can see from this pair of pictures, most of the equipment outside the base has been lost to Ukraine after the Russian invasion.

According to Eklund, it is a base where Russia kept the equipment belonging to the quickly established reserve forces.

The war effort can also be seen in other nearby Russian garrisons.

On the Karelian peninsula in Kaukjärvi, or Kamenka in Russian, a large garrison and training area stands out in the satellite images, which is used by the 138th Motorized Infantry Brigade. It is the strongest unit of the Russian armed forces in the direction of Finland.

A satellite image taken in Kamenka on April 30 shows how more than a hundred tents have been set up in the garrison’s training area.

According to Eklund, during the summer season, troops often move to camp accommodation in training areas.

– However, this camp is so large and located near the barracks that it might be about the training and accommodation arrangements of a group recruited for the war, Eklund estimates.

Movement related to the war can also be seen at Pskov airport, where the large transport planes of the landing forces are stored.

At the beginning of last August, 24 machines were visible, but in the picture taken at the beginning of May, only three were left.

According to Eklund, the small number of planes shows that during the war, heavy transport planes have a lot of flying missions around the country. In addition to the armed forces’ own transport, they can be used, for example, to transport components of the arms industry.

Ukraine has previously attacked the field in Pskov, so it is possible that the equipment has also been dispersed to safer areas.

The remaining Ilyushin IL-76 transport planes can be seen on the taxiways. None of them are on the ground in protected stands.

According to Eklund, it is difficult to estimate how quickly Russia will be able to re-equip depleted ground forces bases near Finland.

– The duration and outcome of the war will affect that, i.e. how much of Russia’s modern equipment and old warehouses will eventually be lost, Eklund says.

According to Eklund, how Western sanctions affect the Russian arms industry is also important: whether it will be able to manufacture new combat equipment at some point or whether it will focus on refurbishing the old, as is happening now.

In the future, Russia cannot focus only on improving areas hostile to Finland, Eklund points out. Russia also has many borders with other states it considers hostile. Russia automatically counts NATO countries as hostile, even though it has launched a major attack itself.

It will certainly take years to build a modern army, says Eklund. On the other hand, Russia can get troops made up of old military equipment ready even faster.

– If the only requirement is that the equipment moves and smoke comes out of the exhaust pipe, the gaps created by the war can be filled faster by using old warehouses, Eklund says.