During his campaign, Donald Trump adopted a principle as old as time, well known to advertisers: repetition. Relentlessly, the future president of the United States has accused – most often without developing an argument – Joe Biden, then Kamala Harris of being responsible for inflation. “The worst in the history of our country”, even dared the billionaire during the one and only debate which pitted him against his opponent. A speech that made a strong impression on the minds of the population. Which could explain the Americans’ choice to sanction at the ballot box the record in this area of the current tenant of the White House – and by extension, that of his vice-president.
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During Joe Biden’s term, the cumulative price increase reached 20%. “The United States had not experienced this for a generation. Democrats and economists have not taken stock of one thing: the extent to which Americans abhor inflation,” notes Raphaël Gallardo, chief economist of the French investment fund Carmignac. However, it fell to 2.4% over one year in October, compared to 9% in June 2022, at its peak. At the same time, real wages have grown faster than price increases. “Inflation remains perceived by the employee as a form of injustice and as an illegitimate drain on their purchasing power, while the increase in their salary would be entirely legitimized by the increase in their productivity,” continues the expert. The measures taken by Joe Biden, such as the return of immigration after the restrictive policy carried out under the Trump era, have made it possible to reduce inflation. “This argument was completely ignored in the campaign, Trump managing to crystallize the debate on the identity and security aspects,” notes Raphaël Gallardo.
To convince voters to vote for him, the Republican also promised that he would lower gasoline prices by significantly increasing oil production, with this slogan “Drill, baby, drill. “This promise hit the mark. In the United States, you cannot do without your vehicle. When he talks about the American golden age, it also refers to cheap energy,” explains Christian Parisot, advisor for Aurel BGC. Kamala Harris tried to put the subject of regulation on the table by indicating her intention to monitor the margins on drugs. “But that doesn’t speak to Americans,” adds the economist.
Joe Biden’s record as a burden
The Democratic candidate especially carried Joe Biden’s record as a burden from which she never managed to free herself. “The inflationary risk has fallen significantly. The central bank has started to relax its monetary policy, which clearly shows that it is confident about the future. However, this is not yet on the minds of households and it remains the main subject “Finally, the perception of loss of purchasing power does not correspond to reality”, says Christian Parisot. And it is Donald Trump’s electorate – the working population, less affluent – who have felt the effects the most.
Another paradox: the measures advocated by the 47th President of the United States are themselves inflationary. The increase in customs duties, the cessation of immigration, even the deportation of several million undocumented immigrants… “All this has been drowned out in the torrent of disinformation, assures Raphaël Gallardo. The quality of the economic debate has been distressing , but it is the characteristic of populism to saturate the media space with simplistic and fallacious arguments. According to him, “the Americans will quickly become disillusioned” when they suffer the economic consequences of Donald Trump’s program. “He has an extraordinary political instinct, but he does not think linearly. He did not at all have a speech built on the economy. He was content to boast of a glorified memory of his first mandate, when economic growth was strong and inflation was under control, and it worked.” Obscuring, in passing, that a pandemic and two wars – in Ukraine and the Middle East – had passed through there.
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